This article analyzes the market trends driving Bitcoin price increases. The bull cycle that began in the first half of 2023 was initially driven by the futures market and then supported by an increase in spot market activity.

Starting in March 2024, both futures and spot markets experienced low trading volume. However, since October, trading volumes have increased in both markets, boosting Bitcoin’s price momentum.

While futures market activity has decreased recently, spot market demand continues to increase. This suggests that speculative excess in the futures market has decreased, but buying pressure in the spot market has strengthened. The futures market is expected to experience cycles of overheating and liquidation, which will contribute to the Bitcoin price increase.

The funding rate analysis using the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) does not show signs of late-cycle overheating. This suggests that Bitcoin’s upward movement may continue and that there is significant room for growth.