Old players fear the new players not entering; exchanges and funds fear players withdrawing their money and not playing anymore.

In the past few days, you might have heard people urging to hold this or that coin, as we are just at the start of the wave, with influencers encouraging others to get on board before missing out. It’s simple because whether you are in profit or at a loss, if you sell off and there are no new buyers, they can’t dump anywhere. This market always requires vigilance and caution.

Scenario

Looking at the indicators, price trends, and macroeconomic news over time (emphasizing that this refers to the past, what has happened), I see this is a phase where the market is more inclined to adjust rather than continue to rise. BTC.D has decreased but shows no signs of crashing; it has hit resistance and bounced back, with the only positive indicator being USDT.D confirming a downward trend in the larger frame.

The good scenario is that money is flowing into BTC, causing Altcoins to continue to drop from now until the end of 2024. When BTC reaches the market’s expected peak during this phase, money will flow back into altcoins, leading to the largest altcoin season in history, which we are waiting for. This scenario will be clearer if the Fed decides to cut interest rates in the coming days and there are no black swan events from now until mid-2025.

Optimists can confidently continue to hold coins that are in a good position, even waiting for slight corrections to DCA positively. But the risks will be high, and one must accept that if the market does not go as expected. The confirmed scenario occurs when BTC does not drop below 90,000, but gradually rises and does not exceed 120,000 from now until the beginning of 2025 (to avoid entering an overbought state).

However, the worst-case scenario is that money partially flows into BTC, investors take profits, and withdraw USDT into cash, exiting the market. This is very scary for the market, meaning that the recent price increase has been the peak of the cycle, which I do not hope will happen.

Analyzing further about this bad scenario, I see it is not without basis, even though many people will criticize me or react negatively.

Firstly, if you believe in the cyclical nature of BTC, in previous cycles, meme coins will soar at the end of the season and catch the final wave, after which BTC and alts will slightly rise and then enter a downturn. The reality is that meme coins have had their time to explode recently, while most technology coins have not returned to the peak of the beginning of the year.

Additionally, this season has too many coins being listed and launched on exchanges. Even during Altcoin season, it is impossible to pump all of them. In reality, many coins have multiplied several times from their lows recently; if you haven't returned to the shore or made a profit, you might have bought in at too high a level.

Many will ask, if there is no push, how do exchanges and investment funds make profits? In fact, they have plenty of time and money. They only need to maintain the price for about 1-2 years, after which they can pump and take profits. By then, many people will have sold off their positions for them to buy back, especially those coins listed in 2024 that should be avoided for safety. They also know how to control each pump and dump cycle and know at what price to buy and sell to induce FOMO in players, then dump accordingly. Looking back at Binance, there are quite a few coins like this, which dump deep, run in a straight line for many years, then pump once and take profits again.

This scenario will be confirmed if BTC.D rounds back to 61%, and USDT.D does not clearly define a trend, with BTC dropping below 80,000.

What should be done during this phase? If you're in profit, take some profits; if you're at a loss, hold and observe, dollar-cost average (DCA), and optimize. If you're not under financial pressure and your investment is idle money, then just be patient during this phase; no one can predict anything.

However, in any case, there must be some reserved capital; going all-in at this stage is very risky because everything is uncertain. And especially, do not invest all-in in altcoins without having some $BTC or $ETH , $SOL in your portfolio, because those coins have large market capitalizations. Although they may not multiply your account significantly, they carry lower risk and are the first to run when money flows into the market.

This phase also carries many risks for futures players, especially when long and shorting altcoins. Even BTC can fluctuate significantly, so the risk of account liquidation is very high. Spot players, if knowledgeable and confident, can trade scalping based on small price ranges.

Set the price level at which you intend to take profits or cut losses, and strictly adhere to that price when it arrives. Do not set expectations too high, and do not let greed force players to continually buy at peak levels for extended periods without being able to take profits.

And one thing to remember: if you haven't taken profits, it doesn't necessarily mean you're in profit. Taking profits while the money is on the exchange doesn’t guarantee that money is in your hands.