Where are we in the psychological cycle?
In a cycle from the bottom to the peak and from the peak back to the bottom, there are many developments according to the general psychology of investors (or speculators) stretched out according to the following model:
•doubt => •hope => •optimism => •confidence => •excitement => •euphoria => •arrogance => •concern => •denial => •surrender => •outrage => •disappointment.
Anyone who has participated from the beginning of 2024 until now will understand the moods mentioned above more clearly. The rebound wave of the previous downtrend has mostly happened like this, although quite quickly. Going back to the chart, we see that after recovering and returning to the bottom once again at the end of 2023 to September-October 2024, we have passed through the stages of outrage, disappointment, and doubt. Negative sentiments often last quite a long time because fish quietly accumulate during such times.
According to the current situation, it is very likely that we are at the end of the hope phase, just stepping into the beginning of the optimism phase. The evidence is that according to the general view of many people, there is concern about a sell-off during the Christmas season, Western New Year, and Lunar New Year. After witnessing the recent strong price increase, there is hope that the price will decrease again to buy. And the expectation is that the price will rise again, rather than thinking it will decrease deeply anymore.
"There might" be a crash like that, but no one can be sure of it. Soon after BTC continuously sets new ATHs, the flow of money to altcoins will lead to the next stages happening quite quickly.
My commentary may be right or wrong; please research everything and do not listen to any KOL. The money is yours, and if you can profit, you won't give anyone a dime, so if you lose, don't criticize them.