Will quantum computing crack Bitcoin? This has sparked heated discussions in the Bitcoin community recently. Noted venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya warned that cracking the SHA-256 algorithm used by Bitcoin would only require 8000 Google quantum chips. However, Bitcoin legend Adam Back refuted this claim. (Background: Should we worry about Google quantum chips 'brute-forcing' Bitcoin wallets? Cosine: Let's worry about Satoshi's private key in a few decades.) (Additional background: Are Satoshi's 1 million Bitcoins at risk of being cracked? Google releases quantum chip Willow, sparking debates about wallet freezing.) On the 9th, Google announced that its newly developed next-generation chip Willow has successfully overcome key challenges in quantum computing, claiming that this chip can perform computations with 105 qubits, solving problems that traditionally took 1 billion years on conventional computers in just 5 minutes. Regarding the quantum computing threat, Emin Gün Sirer, founder of Ava Labs, recently warned that Satoshi's 1 million Bitcoins are in the early Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) format, which directly exposes the public key, giving quantum computing attackers ample time to crack it. He suggested that freezing Satoshi's Bitcoins should be considered to mitigate this threat. Can 8000 Willow chips crack Bitcoin? In this regard, the well-known venture capitalist, founder and CEO of Social Capital, Chamath Palihapitiya, recently stated on the ALL IN Podcast that about 8000 Willow chips could break the SHA-256 algorithm used by Bitcoin, and that there may be only 2 to 5 years left before blockchains need to implement new hashing algorithms. Chamath Palihapitiya on Google's Willow chips cracking Bitcoin: "When Sundar posted this, I missed my next meeting because I had to figure this out. We need about 8000 chips to break SHA-256. We're in the 2-5 year shot clock for chains reimplementing new hashing algorithms." pic.twitter.com/0g0Rs6AOlm — Autism Capital (@AutismCapital) December 13, 2024 However, Bitcoin legend and Blockstream founder and CEO Adam Back refuted this statement, saying: No, you cannot increase the number of qubits by connecting a large number of chips with 105 qubits. We are far from achieving a computer with a million qubits in this decade, and likely in the next decade as well. Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet also remarked: This is embarrassing; there are so many incorrect statements: - There is no _encryption_ in Bitcoin - Quantum computers do not break SHA-256 - 2 Willow chips of 105 qubits do not make a 210 qubit chip Well, that's embarrassing. So many wrong takes: - There's no _encryption_ in Bitcoin - Quantum computers don't break SHA-256 - 2 Willow chips of 105 qubits don't make a 210 qubits chip I've written this thread for people to better understand what the implications of Willow are… https://t.co/qq0cAYxWel — Charles Guillemet (@P3b7_) December 14, 2024 Kaz, founder of Bubbl.fm, further added that SHA-256 is not threatened by quantum computing since hash functions are one-way and irreversible, and quantum computers cannot break them. However, quantum computers pose a threat to cryptographic algorithms; for example, the Schnorr signature algorithm may face risks in 20 years. In response to community doubts, Chamath Palihapitiya clarified that his statements were misinterpreted, explaining that quantum computing will pose a risk to v1 cryptographic methods. Although the specific timeframe is not clear, it is certain that this will not happen in the short term. However, Chamath Palihapitiya reminded that any potential risks associated with Bitcoin can currently be mitigated through forks to implement quantum-resistant cryptographic techniques for new transactions, but this cannot retroactively protect those public keys that have already been exposed and not migrated, such as funds in early p2pk addresses, which will still be vulnerable to quantum computing attacks targeting ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm). Chamath Palihapitiya quoted Satoshi's article from 2010, where Satoshi stated that SHA-256 is very strong and can last for decades unless a significant breakthrough attack occurs; if it is cracked, the blockchain can reach consensus, lock the state before the crack, and transition to a new hashing algorithm. I’m being misquoted in some places. And in others, folks are just being intellectually lazy or technically dumb. So to be clear: Quantum Computing will be a risk to v1 cryptographic approaches. The timeframe is very much not clear and it...

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