The quality of decision-making depends on the information you have and your ability to process that information. - Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater Associates - (Principles)
Bitcoin's price successfully stabilized above $100,000, rebounding after a slight correction, accompanied by $1 billion in liquidations.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $102,800. The current effective support level for Bitcoin is between $100,700 and $100,800. If it falls below this support range and continues to stay below this price range, it will expose downside risks.
Despite rising prices, some investors remain cautious, leading some to prefer investing in these Bitcoin spot ETFs rather than directly purchasing Bitcoin, resulting in reduced market activity. Currently, Bitcoin spot ETFs hold over 1.1 million Bitcoins, with BlackRock holding 524,000, and it is expected that BlackRock will continue to increase its Bitcoin holdings in the future.
Additionally, BlackRock released a report on Bitcoin, suggesting that investors allocate 1-2% of Bitcoin in their portfolios. This could drive inflows from wealth management companies and large pension funds into Bitcoin.
---- BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has assets under management totaling $11.5 trillion!
The holdings of Ethereum spot ETFs have significantly increased. Since their launch in July 2024, the total amount of Ethereum held by U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs has risen from 3.095 million to 3.41 million. This ongoing accumulation could have a significant impact on Ethereum's price, with strong buying pressure expected to push prices close to or above historical highs.
In the U.S. stock market, driven by the market frenzy following President Trump's election, American stock ETFs also experienced record inflows in November.
Whales continue to buy Bitcoin. Meanwhile, smaller addresses (holding 100–1,000 Bitcoins) have been actively increasing their holdings since November, indicating interest from institutional investors. Short-term holders (STH) maintain their buying intentions amid market volatility, especially after prices broke historical highs.
I have consistently maintained an optimistic view on Bitcoin. I expect the U.S. will adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, especially following the relevant policies announced after Trump's inauguration, which may encourage states, including Texas and Florida, to independently establish Bitcoin reserves.
---- It is expected that prices will continue to rise by 2025, with the current increase seen as just the beginning. I boldly speculate that Bitcoin and Ethereum will form a double peak bull market in the first quarter, and the specific price will certainly be much higher than it is now.
Additionally, MicroStrategy (MSTR) announced that it will join the Nasdaq 100 index on December 23, becoming one of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization. Joining this index means its influence in the market will further expand, and the Bitcoin it holds has now become an important part of its business strategy (the company holds over 400,000 Bitcoins).
Some projects considered established tokens, such as Hedera (HBAR) and Ripple (XRP), have shown signs of recovery through significant updates and business expansion, especially after XRP's favorable outcome in its lawsuit against the SEC.
Despite many established coins facing the risk of highly concentrated holdings, with founding teams controlling large circulating supplies that may lead to price manipulation, there are still many investment opportunities in the market. Investors need to carefully distinguish between projects with genuine practical utility and those that rely solely on speculation.
Our team actively invests in and monitors multiple potential targets, waiting for the right timing, and exiting promptly upon identifying risks to protect investment returns.
However, it is worth noting that concerns among investors regarding long-term inflation and the depreciation of fiat currency continue to grow. Despite Bitcoin and gold reaching historical highs, the prices of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have plummeted significantly, resulting in rising yields. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has increased by nearly 20 basis points to 4.379%, reflecting market uncertainty about future economic conditions.
Note: All content represents the author's personal views, not investment advice, and should not be interpreted in any way as tax, accounting, legal, business, financial, or regulatory advice. You should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice regarding tax consequences, before making any investment decisions.