The past week has been a week of divergence, with mixed feelings. There are worries that Microsoft's shareholder vote failed to approve holding Bitcoin reserves, but there is also joy in MicroStrategy successfully entering the Nasdaq 100.
Bitcoin recently rebounded after testing the 30-day moving average and stabilized above 100,000 dollars.
At the beginning of this month, Bitcoin briefly spiked to 90,000. After a round of clearing out long positions, the market gradually stabilized. Short-term support is stabilizing at 93K-94K, and BTC has successfully returned above 100,000, currently challenging the key support line of 99K-100K. At this important threshold of 100,000, BTC may face some pressure in the short term. Short-term fluctuations may be inevitable; however, once it successfully breaks through the previous high, we will welcome a brand new market!
Recently, many fans have been asking whether Bitcoin will adjust down to around 96K before and after Christmas, or will it surge upwards?
One side believes that from Christmas to New Year's Day, it is the Western New Year, and people will be cashing out to celebrate the New Year.
One side believes that Christmas and New Year's Day are during the third rate cut, and being major holidays, there is a need to drive prices up to create a festive atmosphere.
For seasoned investors, these two points are the most conventional thoughts.
To start: Based on the time cycle of consolidation, order book buy and sell data, and the fact that major institutions are continuously reducing positions, I personally lean towards BTC adjusting downwards first before breaking upwards. (On a medium-term basis, there won't be any significant deep adjustment at least until January 20 when Trump is officially inaugurated.) Perhaps before the end of the year, we will see 110-120K. Once Trump officially takes office next month, we may see more policy stimulus, combined with the capital flow of the interest rate cut cycle, the market consensus may sprint towards 150K. I am quite optimistic about this seemingly scripted trend prediction.
Moreover, December 18 is the last interest rate cut of the year, which will release the roadmap for next year's interest rate cuts in advance; this bullish expectation has an inertia effect. Additionally, the week before and after China's Spring Festival has historically been a time of major market movements, so overall, there isn't much demand for adjustments from December to February.
The only thing bulls need to watch is the expectation of interest rate hikes in Japan. As far as I know, the Bank of Japan is considering delaying interest rate hikes at the next monetary policy meeting. This bearish expectation has basically been ruled out within this month. Currently, the BTC market is performing very healthily, and the 4-hour level has not deteriorated. If you speculate that there will be a crash, especially after January 10th, that seems a bit far-fetched. The logic of a bull market is different from that of a small bull; buying on dips should not be hesitant. Only buying on dips is the ultimate weapon for success in a bull market and maximizes profits.
The key short-term support for Ethereum is 3.5K and 3.8K, and it seems to have stabilized for now. In the past few days, BlackRock and companies under Trump have been increasing their ETH positions. Just the Trump family's blockchain project WLFI has doubled its Ethereum holdings, worth 50 million USD, bringing its total on-chain assets to 75 million. So you see, these people are all increasing their Ethereum positions, and this breakout is just a matter of time. First up to 5K, then when it upgrades in March next year, it will reach 8K, which is a fairly clear idea.
In a bull market, sharp declines are common; one must stay away from contracts. Even if trading contracts, it is important to follow the trend for good results.
If you haven't opened a position at this moment, the future layout points, aside from popular meme coins, should likely focus on AI and RWA sector concepts. These two sectors are currently the biggest narratives and should run through the entire bull market. Pay attention to assets with a capital nature in beautiful countries; under the premise that Americans are the market makers this round, the returns shouldn't be too bad.
