Since the price of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $100,000 mark and reached a new all-time high, there has been speculation that the cryptocurrency may have reached the top of this cycle. However, several key indicators of the asset show that this bias reflects a personal opinion, not supported by historical data.
At the time of publication, BTC is trading at around US$102,175. This on-chain analysis explains why the coin's price may still have room to grow despite recent consolidation.
Bitcoin continues its bullish phase
One significant indicator that suggests that Bitcoin’s price could rise again is the long-term/short-term difference between Market Value and Realized Value (MVRV). Historically, this indicator reveals when BTC is in a bullish phase or has transitioned into a bear market.
When the MVRV long/short difference is in positive territory, it indicates that long-term holders have more unrealized profits than short-term holders. In terms of price, this is bullish for Bitcoin. On the other hand, when the indicator is negative, it implies that short-term holders have the upper hand, and in most cases, this means a bearish phase.
According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s MVRV long/short spread has risen to 27.25%, indicating that the current cycle is a Bitcoin bull market. However, the reading has fallen well below the 42.08 recorded in March, which was followed by months of consolidation and correction.
Bitcoin MVRV Long/Short Term Difference. Source: Santiment
The Realized HOLD ratio, commonly referred to as the RHODL ratio, is another key Bitcoin indicator that supports this bias. This indicator is designed to analyze the coin’s market bottoms and tops.
Thus, a high RHODL index suggests that the market is overheated with significant short-term activity, often used to signal impending cycle tops or corrections.
Based on data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio is above the green zone, indicating that it is no longer at a bottom. At the same time, it is below the red zone, meaning that the BTC price has not reached a top. If this remains the same, Bitcoin could rise above its all-time high of $103,900.
Bitcoin RHODL Index. Source: Glassnode
BTC Price Prediction: Higher Values in Spot
An analysis of the daily chart shows that Bitcoin has formed a bull flag. This is a technical pattern that indicates a potential continuation of an uptrend. The index shows the flagpole, which represents the initial strong upward movement in price.
The uptrend at this point indicates aggressive buying and increased trading volume. The pattern, however, usually leads to a sideways or downward consolidation near the top of the initial move. Analysts call this a flag, which takes the shape of a rectangle or pennant, with slightly lower highs and lower lows.
Bitcoin appears to have broken above the upper limit of the flag. Therefore, with this position, the value of the cryptocurrency could rise to $112,500.
Bitcoin Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, if the BTC price drops below the lower limit of the flag, this prediction may be invalidated. This could also happen if key Bitcoin indicators turn bearish. In this case, the value could drop to $89,867.
The article Bitcoin Forecast: Indicators Point to US$100,000 as New Beginning of Cycle was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
