The behavior of the main players often determines market trends, but distinguishing between washing and running away is crucial for retail investors to learn. The following will teach you to judge the main player's intentions from three perspectives: token operations, active address observations, and fund flow analysis, to avoid being harvested.

1. Judging from the perspective of token operations

Both washing and running away involve dumping, but the methods of token operation are fundamentally different:

1. Washing characteristics: counter-trading pressure

• Core feature: During the washing process, tokens dumped by the main player are bought back through other addresses.

• Underlying logic: The main player's goal is to clear floating tokens (short-term speculators) and test market absorption, rather than completely abandon tokens.

• Observation focus: Look at the token distribution to see if other related addresses are buying or selling the dumped tokens.

2. Runaway characteristics: one-way sell-off

• Core feature: The main player directly sells off heavily, and tokens are no longer bought back.

• Underlying logic: The purpose of running away is to cash out, with no signs of fund flow returning.

• Observation focus: Tokens are widely dispersed and have not returned to core addresses.

2. Observe active addresses and KOL behaviors

1. Pay attention to the top 50 addresses in hot markets.

• Under normal circumstances: In hot markets, one or more active addresses can usually be seen leading the charge.

• Abnormal situation: If certain large addresses (especially early sniper addresses) gradually exit, for example, an address that was originally ranked 40 rises to 35, this may signal that the main player is gradually retreating.

2. Monitoring KOL dynamics

• If a key KOL suddenly changes their attitude towards a project, for example, from 'shouting' to cold treatment, or even stops mentioning the project altogether, it may indicate a change in the operations behind the main player.

3. Judging based on fund flow

1. Fund flow of counter-trade washing

• Characteristics:

• Outflow and inflow times are close: Large funds flowing out are typically matched by significant inflows within a few minutes.

• Outflow and inflow amounts match: The quantities of both align, indicating that the main player is suppressing prices through counter-trade washing.

• Case: After a certain address dumps a large amount of tokens, funds quickly flow back to other related addresses.

2. Fund flow of runaway

• Characteristics:

• One-way outflow of funds: After flowing out, funds do not return, but are dispersed to multiple small addresses or directly cashed out at exchanges.

• Continuous large transfers: The main player may carry out large transfers in batches to avoid triggering market panic.

Practical skills: Combine 'tokens + addresses + fund flow' to make judgments.

• Washing signal:

• Tokens are regrouped after being dispersed.

• There are signs of fund flow returning.

• Active addresses are still accumulating or ranking steadily.

• Runaway signal:

• Tokens are significantly dispersed and no longer returning.

• Large funds flow into exchanges with no buyback operations.

• Early core addresses gradually exit, and KOL attitudes shift.

Conclusion

Determining whether the main player is washing or running away relies on a comprehensive analysis of token operation logic, changes in active addresses, and patterns of fund flow. Learning to see through the main player's behavior is essential for gaining a foothold in their game.

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