I. Review of Yesterday and Market Background

From yesterday's (December 14th) trend, SOL faced obstacles around 230, resulting in a continuous decline, with a minimum touching near 215. From the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the support of MA7 and MA30 moving averages, leaning towards bearish overall. From the 1-hour chart, after a rapid rise following a 200 point rebound, the upward momentum is weak, with significant pressure from the upper MA30 and MA100 moving averages.

After falling to around 215 last night, a slight rebound formed, but current bullish strength is limited, and the overall trend still leans towards weakness.

II. Technical Indicator Analysis

  1. Moving Average System

    • 4 Hour Chart：

      • MA7 (short-term) is near 222.56, putting pressure on the price below that line, indicating significant short-term pressure.

      • MA30 (mid-term) is running around 223.09, gradually forming a dead cross with MA7, continuing the bearish trend.

      • MA100 (long-term) is located around 231.31, an important area of mid-term resistance.

    • 1 Hour Chart:

      • The short-term moving average (MA7) is turning upwards, but is in a bearish arrangement with MA30 (222.49) and MA100 (224.89), indicating limited rebound space.

  2. Support and Resistance Levels

    • Upper Resistance:

      • First Resistance Level: 223-225

      • Second Resistance Level: 231 (MA100 pressure)

    • Lower Support:

      • First Support Level: 215

      • Second Support Level: 200

  3. Bollinger Bands Indicator

    • 1 Hour Bollinger Bands：
      Bollinger Middle Band is ataround 220，the price is temporarily above the middle band, indicating a slight rebound demand in the short term, but the pressure on the upper band is ataround 225，the space for further upward movement is limited.

    • 4 Hour Bollinger Bands：
      The Bollinger Middle Band is under pressure, and the price is still in a rebound state from the lower band, but the overall trend has not changed, maintaining a bearish advantage.

  4. Trading Volume
    The trading volume is gradually shrinking, reflecting insufficient rebound strength, and the market still has further correction risks.

  5. MACD Indicator

    • 4 Hour Chart：
      DIF and DEA have formed a dead cross and are moving downwards, with the MACD histogram in negative territory, indicating that bearish forces dominate the market.

    • 1 Hour Chart：
      The MACD indicator is beginning to form a bottom golden cross, but the volume is limited, and it is still necessary to observe the sustainability of the rebound.

III. Today's SOL Trading Suggestions

Mainly short positions, focus on resistance at rebound highs for shorting

  1. Entry Point:

    • Light short position in the 223-225 range

    • If the price rebounds to 230-231, you can add to the short position

  2. Stop Loss Level:

    • 233 (set conservatively, if it breaks MA100, the bearish trend is invalid)

  3. Take Profit Level:

    • First Take Profit Level: 215

    • Second Take Profit Level: 200

Light long position (short-term rebound)

  1. Entry Point:

    • Range 218.50-220.50

  2. Stop Loss Level:

    • 216

  3. Take Profit Level:

    • First Take Profit Level: 223.50

    • Second Take Profit Level: 226

After falling from yesterday's high, SOL shows insufficient short-term rebound strength, with the market performing weakly. From the moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands perspective, the probability of the price rebounding to 223-225 is high, but it is under pressure from the MA30 and MA100 moving averages, with a greater probability of the market continuing to decline.

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