🏦 Banks about the Fed!
▪️ Morgan Stanley:
- We expect the#Fedrate to be cut by 300 bp. in 2 years.
- The Fed will begin cutting interest rates in June 2024.
▪️ Goldman Sachs:
- The Fed will begin cutting interest rates in the 4th quarter of 2024.
- We expect the Fed to cut the Fed rate by 175 bp. by the end of 2025.
- Then we expect a rate reduction in steps of 25 bp. once a quarter until Q2 2026.
▪️ UBS:
- We expect the Fed to cut rates by 275 bps. next year is almost four times higher than the consensus forecast.
- We predict that the US will enter a recession by the 2nd quarter of 2024, which will force the Fed to begin a monetary easing cycle.
▪️ Market expectations (Fed rate):
- 85% probability of a pause at the meeting on December 13.
- The first interest rate reduction is expected in June 2024.