Last night there was a sharp spike, and all shorts below 103,000 in Bitcoin were liquidated. Currently, there are slightly more shorts; if shorts continue to accumulate above 102,600, there might be another spike on Friday night!
A fan asked if Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 70,000 for 240 days, should we also prepare for a prolonged battle around 100,000?
I don't think it will take that long anymore, because the current market is vastly different from the market six months ago, and the influx of capital into the market is like two different worlds. The market changes following the first rate cut on September 18, the second rate cut on November 7, and the significant surge of 30,000 points after the U.S. election on November 5 are very notable. This is not a market trend brought by Trump; it essentially boils down to the Fed's rate cuts, which directly led to a rapid increase in the inflow of funds into the market. When water rises, boats naturally rise. Six months ago, the increase from 30,000 to 70,000 was solely the result of the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, and prior to that, the market was already that deep, just shifting funds around.
Now it's different; both hands are strong when shifting. My point is very clear: it won't take long to firmly stabilize at 100,000. The entire bull market is expected to reach its peak and end in about 11-12 months; it is impossible to take seven or eight months to play around with fluctuations. Have you ever seen a major bull phase in a halving cycle that fluctuated for more than two and a half months? On December 19, the Fed is expected to cut rates, a guaranteed 25 basis points. The market will start to fluctuate six hours before the meeting; if it meets expectations after the announcement, there will be a surge. Therefore, this is not a bearish point; it still mainly supports buying on dips, with some profit-taking during rebounds.
On December 19, during the day, there will be a Japanese interest rate meeting. If there is no rate hike and the expectation for a January hike is weak, then we can directly surge.
In the past two days, there was news that Japan's interest rate hike has been postponed until March next year. According to the larger cycle, a true significant correction is expected between March and May. This major correction refers to a withdrawal of about 32-38% from the total space gained from November 5 to March. The market will reflect this through a weekly level adjustment. Recently, I don't see any signs of this, so I infer that there is generally no risk of deep correction from December to March. There is no need to be timid about buying on dips. The only bearish risk for bulls in the short term is the interest rate hike in Japan.
Speaking of altcoins: In the past week, regardless of whether the market rises or falls, the daily trading volume of altcoins has consistently maintained over 40%. The focus of capital speculation has clearly shifted to altcoins, and once this trend forms, it is often not easily changed. Adhering to the principle of 'the strong get stronger' is the best method for selecting new leading trends.
In terms of asset selection, there are two main criteria for reference: first, the coin price has already broken through this year's pressure zone in March; second, the coin price has the smallest decline during pullbacks and the largest increase during rebounds.
The small-scale ACT has basically broken through, with the first breakthrough showing a pin bar, which is a behavior of inducing shorts and trapping them. Currently, the probability of firmly establishing this breakthrough is very high. Additionally, if the next 1-hour candlestick closes as a large bullish candle, it indicates a strong performance of bottom-fishing chips.
ETH has seen a net inflow for 14 consecutive days, and the amount is not small, but the price has been fluctuating. My understanding is that ETH is currently in a turnover period, with significant disagreements in the market. Weak hands are exiting, while old money from outside is gradually entering. There was a similar turnover period at the end of January to early February after the BTC ETF launched, where weak hands thought the good news had landed, and with Grayscale's selling pressure, they left the market, while old money continuously entered through the ETF.
I believe this turnover period is nearing its end, and the net inflow of the ETF will gradually increase, leading to a significant surge in ETH prices. You can directly refer to BTC ETF; BTC rose by 70% after its turnover period ended. The second half of the month is approaching, and Christmas is also near, which means many institutions need to settle their annual rates, so there might be a demand for profit-taking at the current high levels. Although the news is that BlackRock continues to buy, it does not mean that the market will keep rising. It is a potential upward momentum; the fact is that continuous buying is occurring, but the price is still fluctuating at high levels, indicating that there are still considerable profit-taking levels near 100,000. Therefore, during the adjustment period, if ETH approaches 3,500, don’t hesitate to add some positions!
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