Update #BTC
Currently, in addition to technical analysis, I consider it important to incorporate a psychological component in market interpretation. In my experience, movements of this type tend to generate a significant shakeout in altcoins, while Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable strength.
According to on-chain analysis, it is observed that large holders (whales) are making significant profit-taking, which is understandable considering we are at the end of the year. These liquidations are often driven by seasonal reasons, such as expenses associated with the holiday season, in addition to the closing of annual balances.
However, I maintain a bullish outlook in the medium term. Since Bitcoin's dominance, just like in every Halving, decreases every 4 years, and the altcoins begin to rise as money is distributed into them. My expectation is that the first quarter of 2025 (Q1) will be exceptionally strong for Bitcoin and, by extension, for the crypto market. Therefore, my strategy focuses on accumulating during dips in spot, primarily focusing on altcoins with a proven history of performance and high growth potential.
This approach allows me to capitalize both now and on future opportunities, ensuring a strong position in anticipation of a bull market that, in my opinion, is very close to consolidating.
AT #BTC
1. Fibonacci projections
Level 1.618 as bullish projection approximately $130,000.
Level 1.27 - $112,000
Level 0.618 around $80,000, which coincides with an imbalance zone (Imbalance FVG), acting as critical support in case of retracements.
The Imbalance FVG (Fair Value Gap) represents a zone where price action was not fully balanced, and prices tend to return to complete liquidity.
2. Resistance and support zones
Resistance: The former resistance ($90,000 - $95,000) would act as support in case of retracements.
Main support: It remains in the range of $80,000 - $75,000, aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the FVG.
This implies that any correction towards this zone could be an ideal opportunity to accumulate long positions.
3. Expected potential scenario
The chart suggests a corrective movement if we see a rejection at the 1.27 Fibonacci extension level.
Expected retracement:
From the current level ($105,000) to $112,000, a retracement towards the range of $85,000 - $90,000 (intermediate zone) is likely.
Potentially extending towards the FVG at $75,000.
This retracement would allow completing liquidity before attempting a bullish extension towards the 1.618 level ($130,000).
Action plan
For Swing trading:
1. Ideal entries:
Areas close to $90,000 if there is confirmation of bullish candles in 4H or 1D timeframes.
Second safest entry at $75,000 - $80,000 (Imbalance FVG) with greater bullish conviction.
Monitor volume zones or engulfing candles in support areas.
Conclusion
This chart reinforces the probability of a healthy retracement towards key support zones before continuing the bullish movement. Main recommendation:
Patience to wait for retracements towards $90,000 or $75,000...
Watch for candle patterns, such as hammers or bullish engulfing patterns, and confirm with volume before entering.
Thank you for reading and have a great day
BTC
DOM
PROFIT Whales
Remember that these are not investment advice and are solely personal thoughts.
