When Binance officially mentions the listing of UsualCoin (USUAL), the circulating supply will increase from 300 million (currently unlocked for farming on Launchpool) to 494 million. This increase in available supply may have a significant impact on the expected price of the token at the time of listing.
Price Impact Analysis:
1. Supply Increase (supply shock):
Currently, price calculations (between $0.445 and $0.71) are based on a projected initial market cap of $220 to $350 million, with 494 million circulating tokens.
The increase from 300M to 494M represents a 65% increase in circulating supply. If demand does not grow proportionally, this could exert downward pressure on the price.
2. Adjusted Initial Price Range:
If demand remains constant, the price could adjust proportionally to the new supply. This would imply a potential reduction of the estimated initial price by 40%.
New projections could place the price in an approximate range of $0.27 to $0.45.
3. Mitigating Factors:
Binance anticipates that demand for the token will increase due to its use cases, such as staking, governance, and farming.
The scarcity mechanism linked to the TVL could offset part of the impact, especially if the newly unlocked tokens are actively used in the ecosystem.
In conclusion, the increase in circulating supply could lead to a temporary correction of the initial price, especially if buyers are not prepared to absorb the additional tokens. However, market behavior at the time of listing will be crucial in determining whether the adoption and utility of the token can maintain or even increase its value.