🚨We are currently in the final stage of this bull market.
If the market develops slowly, the top may be hard to maintain until May, at most until late April; if it develops quickly, perhaps around the Spring Festival after Trump takes office on January 20, that could be the top.
Even if the bull market ends and the top collapses, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall 50% in three months or 80% in a year like it did before. The future of Bitcoin belongs to the large funds and institutional ETFs of Wall Street, as well as publicly listed companies and small to medium-sized countries using it as market-making and capital reserves. Wealthy individuals and corporations will also see it as part of their asset allocation (a store of value that increases 2-5 times every four years, very attractive). Bitcoin has already moved away from novice and small investors.
However, the pace of altcoin collapse may be similar to before, or even more intense. Once a downward trend is established, various altcoin speculators and institutions will surely panic sell (since most altcoins are ephemeral). A significant portion will be converted into Bitcoin as large funds also need to guard against the potential risk of USDT collapsing (although the risk is small). Institutions and veteran players usually hold both Bitcoin and USDT during a bear market (those with strong faith may hold Bitcoin throughout, but will never hold only USDT). Missing out on Bitcoin's long-term surge is also a risk (once sold, one might miss the surge if they fail to buy back in time). If one realizes that a bear market has arrived but is slow to liquidate, they can try to convert altcoins with BTC/X trading pairs into Bitcoin to reduce risk (Bitcoin will eventually rise again; clinging to altcoins might lead to despair).
Currently, there are 2-4 months left until the top. During this time, engaging in swing trading may face high risks such as selling too early, buying high after a dip, or missing Bitcoin's surge after liquidating. Ordinary people should focus on buying at the bottom and selling at the top (both buying and selling can be done in batches), capturing around 70-80% of the long-term cycle's major trend is sufficient. Attempting to capture every move, or even aiming for excess returns after swing adjustments, often backfires.
In the current crazy bull phase, one might consider laying low in the primary market; small funds can also yield big returns. Recently, I have observed that Ethereum chain #puppies币 and Musk's concepts are very promising, with a potential of a hundred times; I feel they could be the next SHIB!
