Original author: Delphi Digital
Translation by: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Translator: Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Editor's note: On December 11, the renowned investment research firm Delphi Digital released its market outlook report for the cryptocurrency industry for 2025. This article is the first part of that report, primarily outlining Delphi Digital's analysis of Bitcoin's trend and upward potential in 2015.
Delphi Digital mentioned that if historical trends repeat, Bitcoin could rise to about $175,000 this cycle, with the potential to even spike to $190,000 - $200,000 in the short term.
Below is the original content from Delphi Digital, translated by Odaily Planet Daily.
At the end of 2022, we outlined the reasons why the bear market had bottomed.
Fifteen months ago, we began to express our confidence in the impending bull market cycle more candidly.
In last year's annual report, we also predicted that BTC would break new highs in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Although BTC had already set a new high due to ETF speculation as early as the end of March this year, the recent breakthrough aligns more closely with our original expectations.
At the time of releasing last year's annual report, there were only a little over 3 months until the next Bitcoin halving. We observed from historical data that BTC often rises in the weeks leading up to the halving and enters consolidation after, laying the groundwork for a larger increase afterward.
Fast forward to today, and BTC's real trend basically aligns with this path.
In recent times, BTC's surge has put the market in a very favorable position to move toward greater space.
We also reiterated our view that Bitcoin halving is not the key catalyst for a bull market—it just happens to align with BTC's cyclical upward timing.
As shown in the chart below, this was the situation at that time.
The current situation is as follows.
BTC's trend closely aligns with Delphi Digital's cyclical forecast, which is almost miraculous.
Long-term readers of Delphi Digital research may know why this is happening—it's not a miracle.
The market is driven by momentum, which is vividly reflected in BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
Each historical high for BTC coincides with a 'monthly RSI breaking 70'. In previous bull markets, the market often did not exhaust its momentum until that indicator broke 90.
If this historical precedent repeats, BTC must rise to about $175,000 during this cycle to reach the corresponding RSI level (and if it really starts to soar, it might even reach $190,000-200,000). This prediction assumes that the peak of the current cycle will experience a period of accelerated growth, similar to most previous cycles.
In terms of volatility, BTC's current volatility level is also far below the typical '1-2 standard deviation' volatility that indicates cyclical tops.
In such a rapidly developing industry, it is difficult to see the forest for the trees. We all understand that volatility is a double-edged sword, which is why the time span is important.
If you need more proof, here is an interesting fact. Even if you bought BTC at the cyclical peak in November 2021, if you can hold on, its performance would still outperform all other major asset classes to this day.
The breakthrough of Bitcoin's historical high is not just an attractive headline, but for the cryptocurrency market, it is the ultimate driver of 'risk appetite'.
Price is the ultimate driver of attention, capital flow, and on-chain activity.
In the previous cycle, retail investors only flocked in on a large scale after Bitcoin's price completely broke through previous highs. This trend is evident from the surge in Google search volume and news coverage of 'Bitcoin', to the increase in retail trading revenue for Coinbase. Investor confidence and risk appetite often rise when Bitcoin 'soars' and breaks previous highs.
Price drives increased attention, which in turn accelerates FOMO and capital inflows.
This year's BTC ETF flow trend clearly reflects this trend.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has ranked third in inflow among all ETFs this year, with only the two largest S&P 500 ETFs exceeding it, whose total assets under management are 20 times that of IBIT (about $1.1 trillion).
Price is the ultimate driver, and compared to traditional asset classes, Bitcoin has ranked first in asset appreciation for two consecutive years.
BTC has not only set a new high against the dollar but also against the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index), which itself has risen nearly 30% this year.
BTC has also set a new high against the SPX (S&P 500 Index)... while the SPX is expected to achieve its best performance in the past thirty years this year.
Compared to gold, BTC has also set a new high.
We have long said that one day, the stigma surrounding BTC will be erased. One day, not engaging with BTC will become the greatest risk facing investors and institutions. In our view, that day has come.
Mocking Bitcoin is no longer a cool thing to do. This cycle will solidify BTC's position as a macro asset that can no longer be ignored.
BTC's current market capitalization is approximately $2 trillion.
This is a very large number. If Bitcoin were a publicly traded company, BTC would be the sixth most valuable asset in the world.
Not long ago, many believed that a $100,000 BTC was just a pipe dream. Now, social media timelines are filled with expectations like the one below.
At $91150, BTC had flipped Saudi Aramco;
At $109650, BTC would flip Amazon;
At $107280, BTC would flip Google;
At $156700, BTC would flip Microsoft;
At $170900, BTC would flip Apple;
At $179680, BTC would flip Nvidia...
Bitcoin has now grown large enough to warrant appropriate attention, but it is not so large that it lacks sufficient room for development.
At the time of this writing:
BTC's market capitalization still only accounts for 11% of the total market capitalization of MAG 7 (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA);
BTC's market capitalization is less than 3% of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks and 1.5% of the total market capitalization of global stocks;
BTC's total market capitalization still only represents 5% of the total U.S. public debt and less than 0.7% of the global debt total (public debt + private debt);
The funds held by U.S. money market funds are three times BTC's market capitalization;
BTC's market capitalization still only corresponds to 15% of the total global foreign exchange reserve assets. Hypothetically, if global central banks were to reallocate 5% of their gold reserves to BTC, it would bring over $150 billion in additional purchasing power, equivalent to three times this year's net inflow into IBIT;
Household net worth is at a historical high (over $160 trillion)—over $40 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic peak—primarily driven by rising housing prices and a booming stock market. This figure is 80 times Bitcoin's current market capitalization.
The key is that there are still substantial pools of deep capital available for BTC and the cryptocurrency market. When people are confident in the rising cryptocurrency market, all of this will become potential demand.
With the Federal Reserve and other central banks pushing their national currencies to depreciate by 5-7% each year, investors need to achieve an annual return of 10-15% to hedge against the loss of real purchasing power.
This is why investors' attention is increasingly turning to high-growth industries, as this is the best place to seek above-average returns.
We believe that as the accumulation of positive factors continues to outweigh potential negatives, investors will be more willing to take on certain risks in pursuit of higher returns.
