Behavioral Shift of Bitcoin Holders: LTH/STH Supply Ratio Hits New Cycle Low, Short-Term Trading Dominates the Market

According to the latest data, the long-term to short-term holder supply ratio (LTH/STH Supply Ratio) of Bitcoin has dropped to 3.78, marking the lowest level since this cycle began. This metric is used to measure the supply ratio between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), and the current data indicates that Bitcoin supply is gradually shifting from long-term holders to short-term traders.

HODL Faith Weakens, Short-Term Trading Becomes Mainstream

In the past 30 days, the distribution of holdings in the market has shown characteristics of accelerated circulation, with HODL behavior gradually taking a backseat as more investors tend to seek profits through short-term trading. This phenomenon may be related to the recent increase in price volatility and market expectations for short-term opportunities in Bitcoin.

Impact of the Decline in LTH/STH Supply Ratio

Glassnode points out that compared to the characteristics of historical market tops, the current decline in the LTH/STH ratio does not necessarily indicate that prices have peaked. In fact, in past cycles, even with a decrease in long-term holder supply, Bitcoin prices could continue to rise. This suggests that the increased activity of short-term trading has not weakened the overall bullish sentiment in the market, but may indicate a new round of capital flow.

Increased Short-Term Price Volatility: As more Bitcoin flows into the hands of short-term traders, the market may face more frequent price fluctuations. Increased Uncertainty in Long-Term Trends: The decline in the LTH supply ratio may enhance short-term speculation in the market while weakening the stability of Bitcoin prices. Potential Buying Power: The high willingness of short-term holders to sell indicates that as long as strong buying power appears, the market may still have the potential to push prices higher.

The phenomenon of the LTH/STH supply ratio hitting a new low reflects changes in market sentiment and the rise of short-term trading strategies. However, historical data suggests that this does not mean the end of a bull market, but rather could be a sign of the market entering a new phase. In the current environment, investors need to closely monitor supply and demand dynamics and key price points, adjusting strategies in a timely manner to respond to the new market landscape.

The market is ever-changing; understanding trends is key to success. Is your investment strategy ready to embrace this wave of change?

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