$PNUT
1. Technical Analysis:
30m timeframe:
- Price is in a short-term downtrend, RSI = 40-50 indicates that selling pressure is dominant
- MACD is negatively diverging, indicating strong downward momentum
- Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting that volatility may increase in the near future
- Volume is gradually increasing in down candles
1h timeframe:
- The downtrend is clearer
- RSI below 40 indicates slight oversold condition
- Nearest support zone is 1.25-1.26
- Resistance is near 1.31-1.32
4h and 1D timeframe:
- Medium-term downtrend
- No clear reversal signals yet
- Trading volume is significantly increasing in down sessions
2. Scenarios for the next 4-24 hours:
Scenario 1 (60% probability):
- Price continues to decline towards the 1.25-1.26 zone
- Signal: Volume increases significantly as price decreases
- Confirmation: RSI continues to drop below 40
Scenario 2 (30% probability):
- Technical recovery to test 1.31-1.32
- Signal: RSI makes a higher low
- Confirmation: MACD crosses above the signal line
Scenario 3 (10% probability):
- Sideways in the 1.27-1.30 range
- Signal: Volume gradually decreases
- Confirmation: BB continues to narrow
3. Recommendation:
- Do not enter at this time as the downtrend is still strong
- Wait for clearer reversal signals (RSI making a bottom, MACD positive divergence)
- Stop loss below 1.25 if opening a position
4. ±5% volatility potential:
- High potential in the next 24 hours due to:
+ BB is narrowing
+ Volume is gradually increasing
+ General market volatility is increasing
- Expected volatility range: 1.21-1.34
- Need to set SL/TP wider than normal
Conclusion: The market is in a short to medium-term downtrend, with no clear reversal signals yet. Recommendation to observe further and wait for better opportunities.