Asset manager VanEck states that the altcoin season index has exceeded 60, indicating that BTC prices are likely to rise strongly by about 70% within six months.
Asset management company VanEck believes the altcoin season index shows signs of peaking, which could lead to a strong rise in Bitcoin in the coming months. BTC prices face strong resistance at $100,000, and analysts believe it may peak. However, VanEck's analysts hold the opposite view, stating that the Bitcoin bull market has not yet ended.
The altcoin season index indicates that Bitcoin will rise.
Investment company VanEck holds an optimistic view on Bitcoin's performance and sees strong altcoin performance as a precursor to its potential gains. According to the analysis, when the altcoin season index exceeds 60, Bitcoin tends to deliver positive returns in the following months.
The altcoin season index is an indicator that measures the proportion of the top 50 cryptocurrencies that have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. When this index exceeds 60, it indicates overall strong performance in altcoins. Historical data shows that this phenomenon is usually closely related to subsequent good performance in Bitcoin. VanEck's viewpoint further strengthens market confidence in Bitcoin's potential for returns under specific market conditions.
VanEck's research shows that when the altcoin season index breaks above 60, the average return on Bitcoin significantly increases: up 10% in 1 month, up 30% in 3 months, and up 73% in 6 months. This study is based on an analysis of 61 similar cases and also points out the probabilities of Bitcoin achieving positive returns: 56.5% in 1 month, 59.9% in 3 months, and 61.1% in 6 months. These data suggest that by mid-2025, the price of Bitcoin could soar to $160,000.
At the market level, this week altcoins faced strong selling pressure after a significant surge triggered by Donald Trump's election victory. However, market analysts believe this pullback is a healthy correction that helps eliminate excessive market bubbles. Additionally, the rebound from the super trend line also indicates that its market structure remains resilient.
What will be the next movement of BTC prices?
Cryptocurrency analyst IncomeSharks states that demand for Bitcoin remains strong below $95,000, noting that the price line in that area will soon be bought up. This pattern has appeared seven times, further proving that this area is a key support level.
IncomeSharks states, 'The current market environment is releasing all positive signals' and emphasizes that technical analysis (TA) has not shown signs of a market peak. Although the altcoin market continues to soar, strong buying pressure indicates that investors are confident in further price increases.
Meanwhile, the blockchain analysis platform Santiment reports that when the price of Bitcoin fell to $94,200, market sentiment turned to severe fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). Social media is flooded with discussions about Bitcoin potentially dropping further to the $80,000 to $89,000 range. However, Santiment views this bearish sentiment as a potential bullish signal, indicating that the market may be brewing a rebound.
As of the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin is stable at $97,700, with a market capitalization of $1.933 trillion. Meanwhile, the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs has performed strongly. According to Farside Investors, the total net inflow on Tuesday reached $438.5 million, with BlackRock's IBIT net inflow at $295.6 million and Fidelity's FBTC at $210.5 million. This indicates that institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin continues to rise.