The last potentially market-moving U.S. data for 2024 is here
The U.S. November CPI data, to be released tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, can be likened to 'the last heavyweight U.S. economic indicator of 2024', which seems to be no exaggeration.
Although there is another key inflation index PCE data to be released before the end of the year, the later-released PCE data often cannot compare in impact with the CPI.
With the Federal Reserve set to hold its December meeting next week, tonight's CPI is expected to become an important basis for the Fed's key decision on whether to cut interest rates...
The volatility term structure of U.S. stocks shows that traders are on high alert ahead of the CPI and Fed decision.
Will tonight's CPI data bring any surprises?
Undoubtedly, the CPI data will provide Fed officials with the last observation of the price environment before next week's meeting. Any signs of stagnation in inflation decline could weaken the likelihood of a rate cut.
A reading that is in line with or lower than expectations may solidify a rate cut this month, while a result higher than expected may raise doubts about whether the Fed should cut rates again.
In recent weeks, most Fed speakers have indicated that the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming December meeting. If the CPI meets expectations, investors will anticipate that the Fed will confidently cut rates by 25 basis points next week.
