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Weekly review
From December 2 to December 9 this week, Ice Sugar Orange peaked near $104,088 and fell close to $90,500, with a fluctuation range of about 13%.
Observe the chip distribution chart; there is a significant amount of chip transactions around 95,000, which will provide some support or pressure.
Analysis:
60,000-68,000 approximately 1.91 million coins;
90,000-100,000 approximately 1.35 million coins;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 87,000 to 91,000 is 70%;
Among them, the probability of not breaking above 100,000 to 105,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important news:
In terms of economic news
In November, the non-farm payroll increased by 227,000, exceeding the expected value of 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 12,000 to 36,000.
November unemployment rate at 4.2%, in line with the expected 4.2%, higher than the previous 4.10%.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 85%, up from 67% before the employment report was released.
Kaitou Macro analyst Stephen Brown: Next week's CPI and PPI reports may be the last set of data to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December; core inflation in November is expected to show weak growth, making the odds of a 25 basis point cut greater than a pause.
Fed's Bostic: The decision at the December meeting is not predetermined; future data will be very important, and flexibility must be maintained.
Fed Governor Waller states: Expect to continue rate cuts within the next year, leaning towards supporting a rate cut in December. Fed's Daly: To keep the economy in good shape, policy adjustments must continue, and interest rates should trend down.
HSBC expects the S&P 500 index to reach 6700 points by the end of 2025 (currently at 6089 points).
J.P. Morgan expects gold to rise to $3000 per ounce next year, with an average price of $2950 per ounce in Q4 2025 (currently $2636 per ounce).
The market believes Trump's choice for senior positions is 'quite friendly to the market', including appointing investor Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary and cryptocurrency enthusiast Paul Atkins as head of the SEC.
Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte indicates that long-term trends may continue to facilitate new capital inflows, boosting the U.S. stock market next year.
Crypto ecosystem news
Trump appoints PayPal co-founder David Sacks as 'White House Chief of Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Affairs'; David will formulate policies for the current U.S. government in the fields of AI and cryptocurrency, both of which are crucial for the future economy of the U.S.
Analysis indicates that David Sacks is expected to help lead the relaxation of regulations on the cryptocurrency industry promised by Trump during the campaign, providing cryptocurrency advocates a direct channel to the White House and serving as a liaison between Trump, Congress, and federal agencies related to digital assets (including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission).
Mizuho Securities strategist Shoki Omori points out that other cryptocurrencies should catch up for further upward movement; the altcoin market may see a rebound.
On December 5, 2024, the UK (Financial Times) publicly apologized to readers for its negative reporting on cryptocurrency over the past 14 years. BTC recently broke through $100,000, and many readers believe (Financial Times) should apologize for its long-standing skeptical stance.
Long-term insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral state
Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the appearance of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain premises
Long-term insights
Long-term investor holding structure
Net positions of crypto ETF funds
Large exchange net positions
(Below figure shows long-term investor holding structure)
The holding chips of long-term investors have dropped below 50%.
Historically, this generally indicates a signal that the market has entered the mid-stage or halftime.
Caution is needed in the later stages of the market.
(Below figure shows net positions of crypto ETF funds)
The external market, including new capital, still shows interest in cryptocurrency.
Considering the cumulative net position of funds, it still shows no signs of weakening.
(Below figure shows large exchange net positions)
From the perspective of internal large whales and big players, the current buying power in the market is starting to weaken.
Internal momentum is no longer as strong as before.
Internal funding purchasing momentum has begun to decline, while external funding still shows buying willingness.
Mid-term exploration
Cost structure at various price levels
ETH exchange circulation ratio
Net positions of BTC exchange trends
Positive network sentiment
Incremental model
(Below figure shows cost structure at various price levels)
The 100,000 price level is currently a difficult profit pressure zone for the market; each time the market approaches this price level, there will be significant selling pressure.
The upward momentum in the market may have weakened.
(Below figure shows ETH exchange circulation ratio)
The circulation ratio of ETH is still increasing, which may lead to more intense volatility risks in the market.
(Below figure shows BTC exchange trend net positions)
Currently, BTC's liquidity on exchanges is low; users may have a tendency to wait and see, with no significant directional actions (selling or buying).
(Below figure shows positive network sentiment)
Network sentiment is still declining, and current participation enthusiasm may have fallen to its lowest point this month.
Under poor participation enthusiasm, liquidity within the market may also face some deficiencies.
At the same time, participation enthusiasm is declining, and the market may also enter a state of waiting and seeing.
(Below figure shows incremental model)
The recent inflow rate of incremental has slightly slowed.
The current enthusiasm may have reached a certain stage, and the difficulty of future trends may increase.
In the absence of increments, if the market enters a stage of stock game, it may retrace the market rhythm of Q2 and Q3 of 2024.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options intention transaction ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer amount
New and active addresses
Ice Sugar Orange exchange net positions
Auntie exchange net positions
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: Risk coefficient is in the red zone, increasing risk in derivatives.
(Below figure shows derivatives risk coefficient)
After a frenzied market lasting nearly a month, the next market will likely see increased liquidation of derivatives.
(Below figure shows options intention transaction ratio)
The proportion of put options is at a medium-high level, and the trading volume is at a medium level.
(Below figure shows derivatives trading volume)
As mentioned last week, the market quickly fluctuates when derivatives trading volume is low. This week, derivatives trading volume has returned to a low level, indicating that the next fluctuation is brewing.
(Below figure shows options implied volatility)
Options implied volatility has slightly increased.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral
(Below figure shows profit and loss transfer amount)
Market's positive sentiment blue line resembles a wave; this time, the positive sentiment during the market's push towards the $100,000 mark is weaker compared to the last push. Overall, positive sentiment has decreased this week, and it is expected that the market will soon attempt another push towards $100,000.
(Below figure shows new and active addresses)
New and active addresses remain high.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a state of significant outflow, ETH overall medium outflow.
(Below figure shows Ice Sugar Orange exchange net positions)
BTC exchange net positions continue to show significant outflow accumulation.
(Below figure shows E太 exchange net positions)
ETH overall medium outflow.
(Below figure shows high-weight selling pressure)
The market is very strong, and the emergence of high-weight selling pressure has not affected the market.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power remain flat compared to last week, both in a positive recovery state.
(Below figure shows global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power is basically flat compared to last week.
(Below figure shows USDC exchange net positions)
The purchasing power of stablecoins remains flat compared to last week, in a positive recovery state.
Off-chain trading data rating: There is buying willingness at 94,000; selling willingness at 100,000.
(Below figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is buying willingness around the price level of 90,000 to 94,000;
There is selling willingness around the price level of 100,000.
(Below figure shows Binance off-chain data)
There is buying willingness around the price level of 90,000 to 94,000;
There is selling willingness around the price level of 100,000.
(Below figure shows Bitfinex off-chain data)
There is buying willingness around the price level of 90,000;
There is selling willingness around the price level of 100,000.
Weekly summary:
Summary of news:
Since the U.S. elections last month, investors have poured nearly $140 billion into U.S. stock funds, with the market believing Trump's tax cuts and reforms will boost economic growth.
U.S. employment data is slowing down, and it is expected that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will be lowered again this month, meaning a rate cut.
In recent months' market performance, the market is regaining information.
Looking ahead to the new year, U.S. policy under Trump is relatively loose regarding the capital markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
Combined with factors related to artificial intelligence and various technologies, it should support continued economic growth.
Investment rating for the next year:
U.S. stocks are overweight, and cryptocurrency remains relatively optimistic.
On-chain long-term insights:
The proportion of long-term participants holding market chips has started to decline to below 50%;
Crypto ETF shows that the external market still has a strong purchasing interest in cryptocurrency;
Large exchange positions show that the market's internal large players' buying willingness has begun to decrease significantly.
Market tone:
Internal purchasing is declining, while external buying continues.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
100,000 is a price level with significant profit selling pressure;
ETH circulation volume is increasing, raising the volatility risk in the market;
BTC users are relatively inclined to wait and see;
Current participation enthusiasm is declining;
Incremental has shown slight signs of slowing down.
Market tone:
Waiting and seeing
Market sentiment appears somewhat lukewarm, and overall may fall into a waiting mood with no directional actions.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk coefficient is in the red zone, increasing risk in derivatives.
New active addresses remain high, indicating a high market activity level.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
Overall, BTC is in a state of significant outflow, and ETH is experiencing medium outflow.
Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power remain flat compared to last week, both in a positive recovery state.
Off-chain trading data shows buying willingness at 94,000; selling willingness at 100,000.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 87,000 to 91,000 is 70%; among them, the probability of not breaking above 100,000 to 105,000 in the short term is 60%.
Market tone:
The market's positive sentiment during this push towards the $100,000 mark is weaker compared to the last push, but overall the market sentiment remains very positive. There may be slight fluctuations in the short term, so patiently wait for the next upward push.
Risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not constitute directional investment advice; please treat with caution and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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