On December 5, already after the close of the trading session in the USA, thanks to a powerful bullish impulse, bitcoin managed to break through $100,000 and at the time of writing is trading at $102,818, according to CoinGecko, discussing with experts what the price limit of digital gold is in the current market phase.
According to trader Vladimir Cohen, the stabilization of the first cryptocurrency after a sharp rise indicates the control of the market by major players. The main reason for the rise, the expert states, is the positive speech by the head of the Federal Reserve of the USA, Jerome Powell, on December 4.
«Before this, there were doubts about lowering the key rate in December, but Powell expressed a clear position that he would continue to ease monetary policy. There is no confrontation with the Republicans, and in 2025, liquidity in the stock market will be maintained,» explained Cohen.
The trader noted that following the statements from the head of the Federal Reserve, a noticeable capital flow has begun: investors are locking in profits on the US stock market and transferring funds to bitcoin as a riskier asset.
«This situation is generally beneficial for Wall Street, because they earn well on auctions, on MicroStrategy stocks, and from trading bitcoin ETFs. That is, bitcoin has become an asset class that has attracted major players from Wall Street, and this is one of the main reasons for the optimism,» he explained.
Based on this, Cohen predicts that in the next six months bitcoin could "realistically be pushed" above the $200,000-250,000 mark if there is sufficient liquidity in the first quarter of 2025. However, he did not rule out a scenario where, after a short period of trading just above $100,000, there will be some distribution.
«An important aspect here is whether retail will get involved. By common understanding, bitcoin is quite expensive, and this growth may excite greed among retail investors, but I do not expect significant inflows from there. I believe that everything will really depend on Wall Street, on the flow from the US stock market, and on the policies of major investors,» noted the trader.
According to his optimistic forecast, the level above $100,000 will be maintained until the Christmas rally in December, after which there will likely be a slight correction to around $85,000-90,000 followed by a jump to $120,000.
«I have a positive outlook for the next year. I believe it is quite realistic to reach the level of $200,000 even in the first half of the year, after which there will likely be a serious correction. However, such large corrections of 60-80%, as we saw before, will no longer happen, since bitcoin has become a full-fledged financial asset, mature, with a capitalization of over $2 trillion. Accordingly, it has somewhat different parameters and Price Action. It will not move with such crazy volatility, although many large players are still interested in this,» concluded Cohen.
The USA is the engine of change
Co-founder of Blum, Vladimir Smerkis believes that it is indeed the events in America in 2024 that "added fuel to the cryptocurrency train," starting with the ETF for bitcoin and Ethereum, ending with the victory of Donald Trump, who supported the industry. He also reminded about the upcoming change of the SEC head and speculations regarding the dropping of charges against former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.
«There are a lot of expectations, and most of them have already played out. We saw exactly such rapid growth before the approval of the ETF in the spring. Therefore, I expect the industry's growth at least until the presidential inauguration in the USA,» shared Smerkis.