In recent days, the market's fear and greed index (starting from 12.2) has remained above 75 for five consecutive days, maintaining the previous view: this stage is the last phase of the current bull market.
The first phase of this bull market is the rise from early October 2023 to the end of March 2024; the second phase is a significant adjustment from April to September, and the third phase begins with a surge in October.
The third phase is also divided into small cycles of the main coin's solo performance and the altcoins' catch-up. From October to November, the main coin will primarily perform solo, and in early December, we will see a spiral upward driven alternately by the main coin and altcoins. Currently, we still maintain the judgment that the peak will be seen between February and April, and if it is slow, this peak will be hard to maintain until May, at most until late April; if it is fast, around January 20, just after Trump takes office, could be the peak.
Even if the peak collapses and the bull market ends, it will be difficult for the main coin to drop 50% in three months or 80% in a year like before; the main coin will belong to large capital and institutional ETFs on Wall Street, used as market-making and capital reserve for listed companies and foreign exchange reserves of small and medium-sized countries; wealthy individuals and enterprises will also treat it as an asset for allocation (preserving value and growing 2-5 times every four years, which is very appealing). The main coin has clearly distanced itself from new small investors.
However, the crash rhythm of altcoins will be similar to before, or even worse and deeper; once a downtrend is established, the major players and institutions in various coins will definitely sell off altcoins wildly (almost all altcoins are nearly worthless). A significant portion of this will be converted into the main coin for preservation because large capital must also guard against the potential risk of USDT collapsing (though the risk is very small). Institutions and old players will certainly hold both the main coin and USDT during a bear market (those with firm belief might hold only the main coin throughout the bull and bear cycles, in short, they won't merely hold USDT).
Missing out on the long-term explosive growth of the main coin is also a risk (as long as you have sold, there exists the risk of missing the chance to buy back in time). If you discover that a bear market has arrived and your selling speed is slow, try to exchange all altcoins with BTC/X trading pairs for the main coin to reduce risk (the main coin will eventually rise back, and if you stubbornly hold onto altcoins, you will definitely despair).
Currently, there are still 2-4 months until the peak. Selling at peaks, buying at highs, and then selling off while missing the explosive growth of the main coin is also a risky endeavor. Ordinary people should focus on buying at the bottom and selling at the top (both buying and selling can be done in batches), achieving about 70-80% of the returns from the long-term cyclical trends is sufficient. Trying to catch every wave of correction for excess returns often backfires.
In future cycles, new small investors should use the methods previously used for the main coin to invest in the top 100 potential value altcoins (previously discussed ETF impacts on future cycles), aiming for 3-10 times returns in each cycle. From this perspective, the crypto circle is still the same, and it can be played for many more years, far better than the stock and real estate markets of Tokyo University. To prevent the risk of altcoins going to zero, try to avoid coins with a market cap above 100; as for capable young individuals who believe they can act faster than others, they should go for new coins in trending sectors.
Lastly, let me reiterate: humanity is accelerating towards networking, digitization, and virtualization; the truth of the universe may just be a string of code.