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It took off yesterday and fell sharply today. This drastic fluctuation of Bitcoin is like an allergic reaction of the market. After Bitcoin broke through 100,000, the market will naturally usher in a large number of liquidation shipments. Naturally, many long orders chose to lock in profits above 100,000, and the capital flow that failed to take over formed a 10,000-point correction.
This kind of fluctuation is actually understandable. The game between bulls and bears is always like this. Pinching is commonplace in a bull market. Prices will continue to be baptized by this wave of short-term fluctuations, and the market trend will most likely continue until the first quarter of next year.
After this wave of Bitcoin price correction, the funding rate dropped from 1,000 to 1,000, and the lending rate dropped from 80% to 30% annualized. These changes may seem to be market adjustments, but it is these corrections that have released Bitcoin's risks, and the chances of continuing to set new highs have increased significantly.
Therefore, the market's sharp rises and falls are actually a performance of a dragon-slaying story: a sharp rise followed by a sharp drop, and a sharp drop followed by a sharp rise. This is the norm of capital games, not an indication of a trend reversal.
Every major drop is to clear out those heavily leveraged long positions. For those managing positions, remember to stay defensive and don't get flustered by a single sharp drop.
As for tonight's non-farm data, last night's market felt like it was hit by several sharp movements, with fluctuations that caught people off guard. But I believe tonight's non-farm data is unlikely to trigger another sharp movement. Even if the main force's actions are difficult to watch, they must still be moderated; after all, the smaller foundational indicators still need time to recover.
Currently, it appears that the recovery progress is quite good. Therefore, tonight, the non-farm data is unlikely to trigger a new wave of sharp declines, but rather will bring some rebound in gains. One point to consider: if the non-farm data is negative, it means that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates in December, which will inevitably lead to a rise in market risks and could even trigger a large-scale short.
However, looking at the current situation, the probability of this happening is extremely low. We cannot view market fluctuations with a retail investor mindset: after a sharp drop, there will always be a group of people starting to short, thinking that the earlier they short, the more profit they will have; the result is, they get stuck in shorts, and everything speaks for itself...
Thus, tonight, under the influence of U.S. stocks and non-farm data, the best strategy is to buy on dips; the operation is clear-cut. Although Bitcoin's trend is currently a one-sided rise, short-term volatility is normal.
The upcoming risk time points to note: December 18-19 is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and Japan's December rate hike probability is 66%. If there is a rate hike, the market will definitely experience volatility, and after the volatility, once the bad news settles, the good news will quickly rebound. There may be sharp movements in the short term, so do not let emotions control you.
That being said, we must understand one point: Japan's December rate hike, although it looks like bad news, is actually its last rate hike; therefore, this bad news will soon turn into good news.
Currently, the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency space are in a bull market cycle, and the impact of such adjustments is usually digested by the market within 1-2 weeks. Therefore, around the 20th of this month, it may be worthwhile to look for shorting opportunities.
After next week, short-term risks will need more vigilance, and the discipline of taking profits and cutting losses must be stricter. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, this short-term volatility will not shake the direction of the major trend; the bull market pattern remains steadily upward.
Additionally, do not forget next Thursday evening's U.S. November core PPI data. If it rises from Monday to Tuesday, there may likely be a sharp movement on Thursday evening to create bottom-fishing opportunities. As long as the low long positions are well controlled, this short-term volatility could be a good entry point.
Master looks at the trend:
Yesterday, Bitcoin failed to break the high point, forming a double top pattern and dropping sharply. However, the market's buying momentum has not diminished, and the overall sentiment remains optimistic.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 98600
Second resistance level: 100000
Support level reference:
First support level: 96700
Second support level: 94800
Today's suggestion:
Currently, it is a consolidation after a decline, not a sideways movement, but a formation of a long lower shadow indicating that buying pressure still exists. Therefore, one can pay attention to the price movements around 96~98K. It is also in a V-shaped rebound, so Bitcoin needs to gradually break through the resistance of 98~100K, accompanied by significant trading volume.
12.6 Master Plan Segment:
Long entry reference: A light long position can be attempted in the range of 96200-96700. If it pulls back to the range of 95300-94800, go long directly. Target: 98600-99650
Short entry reference: A light short position can be attempted in the range of 99650-10200-10300. Target: 98600-96700
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