Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
On December 5 at around 10:30, according to OKX market data, the BTC price once surged over $100,000, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%, which also means Bitcoin has impressively broken the $100,000 mark for the first time.
Meanwhile, Ethereum broke through 3800 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.35%; SOL broke through 230 USDT, with the 24-hour decline narrowing to 2%.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surged significantly. According to CoinGecko, the total cryptocurrency market cap has now risen to $3.778 trillion.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that $545 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for over half, but short positions also reached as high as $222 million. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC saw liquidations of $111 million, while ETH saw $74.2037 million.
Long-term narrative: Institutions continue to buy BTC; $100,000 is just the beginning
Currently, the demand for BTC from traditional institutions is extremely strong. Lin Chen, head of Deribit APAC business, posted on X that the trading volume of BTC ecosystem stocks reached $50 billion on November 21, surpassing the entire UK stock market. The trading volume of MSTR alone has reached $32 billion, while the trading volume of the other two MSTR leveraged ETFs has reached $6 billion.
In just the third week of November, four publicly listed companies added billions of dollars in collective debt to their balance sheets to purchase Bitcoin, namely MicroStrategy, MARA Holdings, Semler Scientific, and MetaPlanet. Additionally, MicroStrategy has sold over $6 billion in convertible notes this year to buy Bitcoin, and hedge funds are buying for arbitrage bets. Since October 31 alone, MicroStrategy has purchased about $13.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and issued $3 billion in zero-interest convertible notes, marking the company's fifth bond issuance this year.
Previously, the American publicly listed company Hoth Therapeutics announced that its board of directors approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin. Hoth's CEO Robb Knie stated: "With the continued growth of Bitcoin, gradually becoming a major asset class attracting investors' attention and recognition, we believe Bitcoin will become a powerful fiscal reserve asset. With Bitcoin ETFs recently being approved and increasing activity from institutional investors, Bitcoin will become a strong complement to fiscal strategies. We believe Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties may make it a reliable asset with value storage capabilities." American publicly listed company LQR House Inc. recently announced that its board has approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its fund management strategy. Additionally, the company will now accept cryptocurrency payments on CWSpirits.com, allowing customers to flexibly use digital currency to purchase alcoholic beverages.
As traditional institutions continue to increase their purchases of BTC, many well-known figures are confident about its future development prospects.
Putin: No one can prohibit Bitcoin, as everyone is striving to reduce costs and improve reliability.
Russian President Putin stated at the Russia Calling investment forum, "Who can prohibit Bitcoin? No one can. Who can prohibit the use of other electronic payment methods? No one can either. Because these are new technologies. Regardless of what happens to the dollar in the future, these tools will develop in one way or another, as everyone is striving to reduce costs and improve reliability."
Crypto trader Cobie: Bitcoin's market cap reaching 5 to 10 times that of gold is more reasonable, as it has become a more scarce interstellar digital gold than gold.
Cryptocurrency trader Jordan Fish (alias Cobie) posted on X saying: "Bitcoin flipping gold is just a reminder to return to rational reality. The multiple it flips is a more interesting question. Perhaps 5 to 10 times is a fair valuation approaching during this process."
In addition, he added: "Honestly, while gold will also face serious competition from Bitcoin's competing assets, Bitcoin is essentially interstellar digital gold, and as the writing on the wall predicts, as humanity becomes a multi-planetary species, mineral rocks and gold investors on Earth may choose more superior assets. Many other gold scenarios: perhaps some future intelligence can alchemize, or perhaps future humans who conquer the stars will be able to mine infinite gold in space. In contrast, we seem unlikely to find any Bitcoin in space."
CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin bull market is starting, current data is similar to 2020
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X stating that the Bitcoin bull market is starting, and current data is similar to the market performance in 2020. On-chain data over the past few months shows whales continuously accumulating Bitcoin, which many were skeptical of at the time, but now the reason for this accumulation seems to have become quite clear.
It further analyzes that after the halving, the mining cost doubles, and the price needs to rise to maintain miners' profitability. In addition, many traders short Bitcoin, which may push the bull market development through short squeezes. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets usually start in the fourth quarter.
Satoshi Act Fund co-founder: 10 states in the U.S. plan to introduce 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' legislation.
Satoshi Act Fund co-founder Dennis Porter stated that several states in the U.S. are preparing to introduce sovereign Bitcoin reserve legislation. Porter is lobbying local policymakers to introduce BTC reserve legislation within the jurisdiction of 10 states and disclosed this progress on X, emphasizing the efforts of the Satoshi Act Fund to pass Bitcoin-focused laws.
He stated: "I can now officially confirm and announce that 10 states in the United States will introduce 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' legislation. We will win with Bitcoin and lead globally." Porter added that passing laws in 10 states is a long way to go.
Deribit CEO: The options market bets that BTC has greater rebound potential, and derivative traders are overwhelmingly bullish
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers pointed out that based on options market data, cryptocurrency derivative traders appear overwhelmingly bullish, betting that Bitcoin has greater rebound potential.
Short-term possibility: Amidst the surge, beware of corrections
As BTC breaks through this important $100,000 threshold, while most investors may be unwilling to face this issue, caution against potential correction risks is still necessary amidst the excitement. Overall, the current market faces mainly three correction factors.
Reason for correction one: The fear and greed index remains at a high level.
The first factor is the current public sentiment frenzy, with the fear and greed index remaining high.
According to Alternative data, today's fear and greed index is 84, still at an extreme greed level, and the level for the past week was also extreme greed. As the saying goes, "buy when no one is asking, sell when voices are loud," from the current sentiment data, it is impossible to determine where the short-term BTC peak is, but there is always a risk of correction.
The panic index threshold is 0-100, including indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media heat (15%) + market survey (15%) + Bitcoin's market share (10%) + Google hot word analysis (10%)
Reason for correction two: There is a window period for the realization of crypto policies.
The second factor is the window period for the realization of Trump's policies; increasing uncertainty may lead to institutions taking profits and exiting.
Since Trump will take office on January 20 next year, about a month and a half from now, and crypto-related policies are not a priority after Trump takes office. Investment bank TDCowen believes that the regulatory environment will change as expected, but also emphasizes that "the Trump team's focus is on extending tax cuts and addressing tariffs and trade issues, cryptocurrency will not be a top priority," so the intensity and timing of policy implementation remain to be discussed. In addition, analysts believe that "Trump was once a skeptic of cryptocurrency, but changed his stance after digital asset companies invested heavily to promote their interests during the campaign, and there are still doubts about the feasibility and implementation timeline of his promises."
In summary, there is still nearly a two-month window period until Trump officially takes office. If a large amount of capital chooses to take profits and exit as BTC breaks through $100,000, avoiding risks and waiting for Trump's first response to the crypto industry to make further decisions, this could be a "bearish" factor for short-term BTC prices, or a significant correction may occur.
Reason for correction three: continuously rising leverage
The third factor is the continuous rise in current market leverage, which has objectively set the stage for significant market volatility.
Coinglass data shows that the total open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts across the network has reached 626,100 BTC (approximately $63 billion), continuously setting new historical highs; the nominal value of open interest in BTC options across the network is $36.8 billion, approaching historical highs.
Looking back at past trends, leverage is both a catalyst for bull markets and a trigger point for extreme market conditions. While predictions about market movements should not be "carving a boat to seek a sword," risk management remains a key focus.
Further reading
Learn more about SEC's new chairman Paul Atkins: Is the crypto industry celebrating too early?
Bitcoin hovers around the $100,000 mark; what phase of the bull market are we in analyzed from six dimensions?
