On December 8, the non-farm payroll data will be released, on December 11 the CPI data from the Federal Reserve will be released, and the eighth interest rate decision meeting will be held on December 17-18. The entire month of December will be a time of high-level volatility and thrills. It will wash away too many high-leverage profit positions, so everyone should try to control their positions well.
According to data disclosed by IntoTheBlock, long-term Bitcoin holders are gradually reducing their balances, currently holding 12.45 million BTC, the lowest level since July 2022. The balance of long-term holders in this period has decreased by 9.8%, not yet reaching the previous cycle peak. In 2021, the balance of long-term holders fell by as much as 15%, and in 2017 by 26%.
Meanwhile, affected by the domestic turmoil in South Korea yesterday, BTC once dropped to $93,000, and the Korean exchange Upbit briefly hit a low of $72,000. Within an hour of the martial law in Korea, over 163 million USDT flowed into Upbit, indicating that buying power is still strong.
Recently, large whales are still accumulating, for example, MicroStrategy, which purchased 15,400 BTC with $1.5 billion from November 25 to December 1.
Currently, based on on-chain data, pay attention to risk control, and positions should be rational.
(1) Stablecoins continue to flow into exchanges slightly.
(2) BTC continues to flow out of exchanges.
(3) Yesterday, the U.S. government transferred 19,800 BTC, of which 10,000 BTC (approximately $968 million) was transferred to Coinbase and has not yet been sold. Trump has not taken office yet, so he cannot stop the current government from selling coins. The overall trend is bullish, but a deep correction cannot be ruled out in between.
From the news perspective:
Federal Reserve Governor Waller said yesterday that he tends to support a rate cut in December.
Trump is about to appoint a new SEC chairman.
Popular sectors:
(1) The inscription sector led by ordi has started to move, pay more attention.
(2) The platform tokens led by BNB have started to move; personally, I suggest paying more attention to OKB, which has only one-tenth the market value of BNB. The user experience and operational data of the OKEx exchange have also remained good and upward in the past six months.
Strategy:
Take profits in batches during the surge; the current profit-loss ratio is very important!
Hold profits and bullets steady; if a major drop occurs, buy the dip!
Bitcoin: Short-term support is around 94,200, and short-term resistance is around 98,500.
Ethereum: This week will see a directional choice; if it effectively breaks through 3,800, subsequent resistance is critical at 4,000, and if it falls below 3,590, look for adjustments.
Now, what is being tested is our risk control; do not be greedy. Take profits in batches for coins that surge, and protect profits. Avoid recklessly opening contracts with earned money to prevent liquidation.