12.3 Evening Chat
Are you feeling confused because you can't find direction in the volatile market? Currently, the overall trend is still around the volatile range, and the monkey market has returned.
In fact, since the early morning of November 27, when Bitcoin hit a low (90825) at 4 AM, it immediately rebounded at the same time the next day. Our monkey market has arrived. Every new high or low is quickly wiped out, with no continuation, such as in the 1-hour K pattern. We can see that after reaching a new high on November 29, it immediately hit a low point in less than 24 hours, and then the rebound strength was limited by the trend, returning to a volatile state.
This isn't just a one-time case; yesterday morning, the main force once again raised prices to sell off, immediately dropping from 982 back to around 948, which has also been verified. However, have you noticed that each time the high points are getting lower, and the low points are also getting lower, with each subsequent low being lower than the last? The magnitude of the process will also accelerate with the downward force. Currently, I believe this is a volatile downward trend, and after creating a new low, the market structure will accelerate its decline.
Summary: A volatile downward trend, accelerating the market's decline through new lows. After the decline ends, there will be a rebound to lift prices, but if it does not exceed the previous high, the market will continue to create lows. It is recommended to go long at low points and short at high points, keeping in mind that in a volatile market, short-term trading reigns supreme. Use a guerrilla warfare strategy to trade: take a shot and change positions.
Current price is around 945, which has already broken the 4-hour life line, and the market is still accelerating downwards. We wait for a bottom to show a rebound signal before we can set up a short-term long position to capture a short-term rebound.
If you're a bit aggressive, you can directly enter with a light position around 950. You can evaluate the strength at 12 o'clock to decide whether to stay or go. If a rebound signal appears, immediately close the short position and go long to see if it reaches around 958-963, and then continue to position.
The most favorable aspect of volatility is that it won't keep falling or rising. New partners often die in trending markets, but this time is different. As long as you enter the market sensibly, then hold firmly, there will always be rewards.
I see the trend: short-term volatility downward, but the medium to long-term trend still leans towards upward.