BTC
BTC fell below the BOLL middle track yesterday and continued to fluctuate today. From the trend chart, it has now broken below the 94000 position. The BOLL indicator shows a clear opening, meaning that if there is no clear rebound, it is very likely to drop to the 90000 position next. If it cannot rebound above 95000 at night, it may test the 90000 position. Here, we need to remain cautious and appropriately reduce the leverage ratio or position for long trades, or choose to hold spot.
Here we choose a conservative approach, as the market generally rebounded yesterday morning and this morning. However, after noon, the market price declined, and by around six o'clock in the evening, the price further fell. After 9:30 PM last night, there was a rebound trend, but the rebound strength was insufficient. Therefore, today we need to maintain a vigilant attitude and be cautious about going long. If it falls below 93500, we can consider shorting.
ETH
ETH tested the BOLL middle track but did not stabilize and continued to fall. From the trend, it can be seen that ETH's BOLL line also shows an opening trend, meaning there is a chance it may follow a similar trend as BTC, which could lead to a decline. Therefore, we also choose to reduce leverage or position or hold spot. If the price falls below 3500, it may next test 3300, with some support around 3400. Of course, we need to wait until tomorrow morning to see the specific trend. If there is a rebound, it needs to stabilize above 3660 for the downward trend to potentially be reversed.
Can we still chase Ripple now?
Actually, I rarely mention Ripple. The main reason is that I have not adjusted my investment perspective on Ripple before. However, from Ripple's recent trend and research, I believe that Ripple's current trend is a relatively certain event. Ripple now is somewhat similar to ADA in the last bull market, creating a FOMO mentality in the market, but very few can actually catch up or board the train. Because in the last bull market, I had a lot of friends playing DeFi, but very few were playing ADA.
There are two main reasons why Ripple can rise so high:
1. Winning the lawsuit represents that the previous negative factors have been resolved, and what remains are positive factors.
2. In the last bull market, Ripple stagnated and did not reach a new high, while the price in this bull market is only comparable to the price in the 2017 bull market. This is a delayed increase for Ripple. Compared to established altcoins, Dogecoin surged in the last bull market, while LTC also performed poorly in the last bull market but is impressive in this bull market. Similarly, there is a demand for Ripple to rise.
Of course, other factors like Ripple's ETF, I think the possibility is not very high, because Ripple's centralization is too obvious, with a large number of coins held by a few addresses. The payments made were quite good in the years after 2017, but in recent years, there are fewer people paying attention. My own Ripple wallet cannot connect to the network unless I use special methods.
But speaking of which, Ripple's current price is only catching up to the highest price in 2017, while ETH and BTC have both multiplied several times. Therefore, from this perspective, Ripple's price increase will continue.
So how will the next script unfold?
If we follow Ripple's script from 2017, it first rises (the favorable news at the time was that Ripple was going to cooperate with Google), and then remains sideways for a long time (for half a year or longer). The rise of other cryptocurrencies will force investors to shift to other projects, until the late bull market when Ripple will experience a significant surge (at that time, there were many rumors about payments and partnerships with various banks), which could push its market value to the third position (in 2017, Ripple's market value reached second place for a period, exceeding ETH). Whether it can surpass ETH this time is still unknown, but compared to the price in 2017, it has only just arrived. Therefore, in terms of capital cost, Ripple has some motivation.
Of course, for Ripple's little brother — Stellar, the trend is similar. If you think the price increase of Ripple is too high, buying some Stellar is also fine, but be cautious of a potential long-term sideways trend ahead, as this can easily wash out investors and lead to opportunity costs. Therefore, if you want to participate, it's advisable to allocate a small position.