Let's talk about BTC. Bitcoin is aiming to break 100,000 this time. One possibility is that the ETF inflow data is very high, reaching an all-time high. The second scenario is Microsoft's Bitcoin investment plan around December 10. If this plan by Microsoft passes, it will basically stabilize things. The last company, MicroStrategy, bought 4.6 billion worth of Bitcoin, so if Microsoft passes, the volume won't be too small either. Secondly, as everyone has noticed, Bitcoin is rising but altcoins are not following, and when Bitcoin drops, altcoins also do not follow. This is actually the bleeding phase; liquidity has gradually returned to the altcoin market. So recently, many altcoins have started to emerge, including those we have been watching, performing quickly. Even though Bitcoin is adjusting at a high level, altcoins are not following, which is a good sign, starting with Ethereum. As for Bitcoin, there is not much to say. MicroStrategy's cost is around 88,000, so the last pullback to 90,000 held up. Yesterday, they again bought 1.5 billion at an average price of around 95,000, so there is strong support. Looking forward, Bitcoin will rise as well. Additionally, for those holding Bitcoin, I previously mentioned to reduce positions by 20% once it breaks 100,000. This only refers to Bitcoin holdings, not altcoins, because our goal in the crypto space is to make money. We cannot just buy; we also need to know when to sell. It doesn't mean to sell everything; just selling 20% is fine. The remaining can be kept. Next, let's talk about Ethereum. This past Friday, Ethereum's ETF inflow has already surpassed that of Bitcoin, which is actually a signal. Bitcoin is becoming more expensive, and only institutions can handle it. The price increase won't be significant, so the focus is on Ethereum. Next year, there is also a major benefit for Ethereum: Trump's policies will be more lenient, allowing for Ethereum ETF staking functions. At that point, Ethereum will become very strong because ETFs will go for staking, and the staking interest will belong to them. If Ethereum is strong, altcoins will be even stronger.
Then, talking about altcoins, there will also be ETFs launched next year, and Solana is likely to be the next. So we previously informed some people to hold long-term Solana around 110. Now we have only released the principal; for the rest of the positions, we are also doing more short-term trading. For those that need to reduce positions, we will do so, and for long-term holdings, we will also provide timely reminders. Additionally, we have controlled our positions. Currently, we are still separating long-term and short-term trades and are not mixing them up. Now we always set stop-losses; if you don’t know how, we have recorded videos. Definitely avoid getting deeply trapped. The market is getting better, and our returns should also increase!
Alright, there’s nothing much else to say. Let’s patiently wait for the performance of our holdings and hope this bull market yields satisfactory results!
On the 5th of this month, there is non-farm payroll data; on the 11th, there is CPI; and at the end of the month, there’s Christmas. The macro data is likely to develop positively. We must be cautious about Christmas on the 25th. Christmas is like the Spring Festival for foreigners, and generally, institutions and whales will calculate annualized rates for external promotion and marketing. Once the annualized rate is calculated, these institutions will begin to realize profits. But don't be afraid; they won't sell too much. At this time, there will be comparisons to last year's Christmas. Last Christmas, there wasn't much adjustment, but this time is different. Just in November, Bitcoin's monthly close has increased by nearly 50%. Not to mention the institutions and whales that entered at the bottom, their profits will amplify, leading to selling pressure. This is just like the recent pullback when Bitcoin approached 100,000; it started to adjust because some institutions were rotating for short-term profits, which is normal.
So what should we do?
If you bought altcoins close to Christmas, or if you're holding short-term positions that haven't performed around the 20th of Christmas week, I suggest you can consider switching to USDT or selling off a bit to hedge!
If you're in profit, it's simple: lock in the profit and don't ride the roller coaster.
Long-term holdings are not affected because after Christmas, we will welcome New Year's Day and the Spring Festival. Generally, such holidays often see a strong rally. Christmas just has temporary selling pressure, so just be mindful not to ride the roller coaster.
Lastly, let me share a technique that you can hold onto, including why short-term trading and long-term holdings should be separated!
First, the general direction is definitely upward. Currently, most of my strategies are focused on short-term trading to give everyone a sense of operation and also to help everyone learn to reduce positions. Because many people don't know how to sell, I tell everyone that if the altcoin you've bought has increased by 50%, it's perfectly fine to sell 30% normally. After all, no one has infinite bullets. When you reduce your position, can you buy the next one? Of course, if the remaining base can run out and double, that’s even better. Directly withdrawing the principal achieves a zero-cost holding, and later adjustments won’t make you panic. The initial tenfold gain from Pepe was achieved through this kind of operation. Many people want tenfold or fivefold coins, but can you actually hold on to them? If you don’t make some operations, you can’t hold on.
Second, I fixedly check the data in the circle every morning, such as the ETF inflow and outflow data for BTC and ETH. Currently, the only thing affecting the altcoin trend is Ethereum. So today, when Ethereum's ETF data showed outflow, I definitely need to remind about the risk because inflow represents new funds coming in, while outflow indicates institutions are rotating their positions, which will affect the trend, but it's only short-term. This morning, I saw Ethereum had an outflow (PS: today ETH's data is normally inflowing, and some friends reminded me that the data was delayed, so later checks on ETF data would be more accurate!). I must remind everyone not to chase high prices. If you hit the profit point in short-term trading, you should reduce your position. I've seen too many people unwilling to reduce positions and ride the roller coaster. Of course, if you’re holding long-term, you don’t need to act because it only affects the short-term market. Today, ONDO also performed well; for those who had chips earlier, I let them keep their principal profits. This is the difference between long-term and short-term trading, and I hope everyone understands.