Why $SOL will underperform?
In my opinion, the real factors driving Solana's performance this year to become the best YTD performer among scaled assets include the following:
A more active and diverse ecosystem than competitors, with fast transaction speeds;
The strongest "casino" environment, attracting many meme players willing to use $SOL as a unit of account;
Mid-year inflows - I think many fund managers and large liquidity players were squeezed out by the lack of Ethereum ETF enthusiasm and experienced a degree of "existential crisis" in future asset allocation.
Today, I believe that all three of the above drivers have weakened and are extremely vulnerable to shocks, and there is still a lot of excess froth to be cut. Here are my specific reasons:
As the dominant L1 with speed and diversity as the main feature, Solana is facing strong threats from HYPE and Ethereum/Base
The rise of these threats was unexpected and has not been effectively addressed.
