Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. The market trading volume was light and the overall consolidation pattern was maintained. U.S. stocks are on the verge of making history again, with 2024 shaping up to be one of the best years in history, with returns reaching double-digit highs in five of the last six years.
2024 is on track to be one of the best years in history
Market breadth remains supportive, with the 52-week stock high-low volume spread still looking healthy, the uptrend remaining intact, the VIX trending downwards, and U.S. Treasuries falling after Trump announced that Scott Bessent will be Treasury Secretary. Markets have returned to calm, with 10-year yields down nearly 35 basis points from October highs.
SPX’s technical indicators remain good
Source: Cam Hui 
Source: Cam Hui
In addition to his so-called "pro-cryptocurrency" stance, Bessent is also a fiscal hawk and supporter of an independent Federal Reserve. His 3-3-3 plan (to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP and increase real GDP growth To 3%, energy production increased by 3 million barrels per day) has brought relief to U.S. fixed income markets, where yield curve premiums have stabilized at current levels since his nomination. While doubts remain about his core views, reporters studying his early speeches found that he was "long-term bullish" on gold as central banks continue to accumulate, and whether this will have a spillover effect on Bitcoin, especially in the near future regarding the strategic reserve portfolio. in discussion? The next 4 years will undoubtedly be interesting to say the least.
Fixed income markets have stabilized since Bessent was confirmed
Source: Fred, Cam Hui Bessent Minister is considered "long-term bullish" on gold...what about BTC?
Traders are heading back into a busy week ahead of the release of the last non-farm payrolls data of the year. While concerns about a resurgence in inflation are nascent, markets still price a rate cut at around 65% chance, but forward rate cut expectations for 2025-2027 have been significantly reduced given the strength of the economy. In terms of employment data, the market expects overall employment data to rebound to around +160,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at around 4.3%. There is also a chance that the final data result will be lower than expected given the recent weakness in PMI surveys and high-frequency employment data, but risk sentiment is likely to remain positive barring an extremely surprising outcome.
Interest rate markets have slashed forward rate cut expectations for 2025 and beyond
Source: Citi
Wall Street expects rebound in non-farm payrolls data this month
Source: Citi Will inflation return in 2025?
Optimism remains widespread in the cryptocurrency market, but the focus this week is on Ripple. XRP surged an astonishing 73% on expectations that the government will drop its long-standing lawsuit. This significant wave of gains helped XRP surpass USDT and become the The third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. In anticipation of this development, whale addresses have been actively buying (and now selling) XRP over the past month.
Ripple surpasses USDT to become the third largest token by market capitalization
Source: Messari
Large holders have been very active in XRP buying and selling recently
Source: Messari
The current rally is mainly concentrated in the mainstream coins (excluding ETH), led by BTC, while altcoins are still struggling to return to January highs. While the recent success of L2 and protocol transformation blockchains (such as Hyperliquid) still dominates the cryptocurrency market’s attention, we are seeing some improvement in Ethereum through the inflows of the ETH ETF, which last Friday exceeded $330 million. , will we see more secondary mainstream currencies being driven to rebound before the end of the year?
BTC still dominates year-to-date gains
L2 fees and the success of DeFi protocol-transforming blockchain projects such as Hyperliquid have dominated the recent cryptocurrency narrative
Source: Coingecko, Bloomberg
ETH ETF inflows are finally starting to pick up…is this a sign?
Source: Farside Investors
Regardless, fundamental indicators for cryptocurrencies remain positive, with stablecoin market caps finally surpassing the highs of the Terra-Luna period. Stablecoins are often the first port of entry into the cryptocurrency market for most fiat users, and higher market caps (prices are fixed and therefore driven entirely by volume) indicate greater mainstream participation.
Will the new year see faster growth as investors invest more new money? Hope so!
An increase in stablecoin market capitalization usually means higher mainstream participation. About the author
Augustine Fan, Founding Partner, SOFA.org
Augustine Fan is a professional with more than two decades of distinguished experience, active on Wall Street, family offices, private equity, and now in the cryptocurrency field. He currently holds leadership roles at SOFA.org and is also a Partner and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of SignalPlus, a leading digital asset software technology provider in the cryptocurrency options space.
Before entering the cryptocurrency field, Augustine worked at Goldman Sachs for ten years as a U.S. interest rate trader and macro expert, serving in offices in New York, London, Tokyo and Hong Kong. After leaving Wall Street, he joined a shipping-based family office in Hong Kong where he helped manage one of Asia's most active sub-macro trading portfolios. He subsequently became the chief investment officer (CIO) of another family office in Hong Kong, focusing on private equity, credit, real estate, listed companies and frontier market investments.
Augustine is a CFA chartered financial analyst, Leslie Wong Fellow, and graduated with first class honors from the University of British Columbia (UBC) in Canada with a bachelor's degree in business.
This article Final Stretch: Ripple jumps to third by market capitalization, does XRP’s stunning rebound herald a new landscape for the crypto market? First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
