Currently, the weekly chart has recorded seven bullish candles, five doji candles, and one hanging man bearish candle; in other words, the seven waves have lasted for 13 weeks, equating to 91 days. Last week, a doji bullish candle appeared, and the bulls were barely in control. As of this week, we currently have a doji bearish candle, indicating that the bears are in control. After the inverted hammer doji formation, three large bullish candles followed.
What does this mean? The inverted hammer indicates a strong bullish sentiment, and the subsequent three bullish candles weakening suggests that the seven waves of bullish momentum are exhausted; as for whether the main forces will push the market up, the current situation is not mature.
The seven waves of the market have concluded, this is my opinion! Bitcoin is entering a consolidation phase for seven waves with at least eight weeks of fluctuating market activity. During this fluctuation, the bulls will attempt to drive up the second, third, and fourth line altcoins. Once these altcoins have increased by three to six times, the bulls will take advantage of retail investors chasing prices and create a market crash, leading to an eight-wave correction (the eighth wave typically features two weeks of large bearish candles, followed by eight weeks of sideways movement); then the ninth wave will rise for 10 to 12 weeks.
In other words, the current seven-wave upward trend in the market has already finished, and we are entering a seven-wave consolidation phase. At most, the rise will result in a doji bullish candle. During this consolidation phase, third and fourth line altcoins will see significant gains! The fact that Bitcoin's market share accounts for 66% already indicates the issue!
So the strategy is clear: for altcoins on the third and fourth lines, when they rise about six times from the bottom, you should reduce your position by about 80% to prevent a major market crash of eight waves. Once the market enters the eighth wave, altcoins should reduce their positions by more than 80%, and only when the market has halved can funds be reinvested!
Why not directly pull the seven waves to the bull peak and enter a bear market? Because after consolidating for eight weeks, the ninth week sees a big breakout, meaning there are still 63 days until the bullish momentum is exhausted, which is two months and three days. This estimates that the breakout will exhaust on February 6, 2025, followed by a high-level consolidation for 4 to 6 weeks. Entering a bear market would then be around March 16, 2025, which seems to align with typical bear market timelines!
If we proceed with the nine waves: the bear market is expected to begin around July 2025! Historically, the bear market in 2021 occurred around November 10, 2021; the variance in bear market timings is somewhat large...
If any observers have insights, please feel free to share!