Article republished from: Frank
Author: Frank, PANews
The recently passed November is destined to be a month of Bitcoin dancing with MEME. PNUT has become the most dazzling star in the MEME track in November. It created a record of reaching a market cap of over $2 billion in a single month from zero and generated countless wealth myths for diamond hands and smart money.
Setting aside Musk's shout-outs and support from mainstream exchanges like Binance, how did those smart money and diamond hands capture this golden project? What is the current state of on-chain chip distribution? PANews conducted extensive data analysis on the top 1,000 holding addresses of PNUT to uncover the secrets of these leading chips.
Firstly, this section explains the data sources and methods used for this analysis. The analysis is based on the top 1,000 addresses holding positions on November 28. Due to issues with the source of trading data, bot addresses, exchange addresses, trading pool addresses, or abnormal addresses were excluded. In total, about 624 addresses were analyzed regarding their initial buying or transfer conditions (price, amount), initial selling or transfer conditions (price, amount), some related addresses, some big player addresses, and early on-chain buying and selling addresses.
Diamond hands faster than Musk.
Initial buying time distribution chart.
Through analysis, PANews found that most of these big players' initial buying times were concentrated between November 2nd and November 4th. Among them, November 3rd had the most addresses buying, with 159 addresses. November 2nd followed with 138 addresses making their first purchases that day. From the timeline, the Peanut event was first mentioned by Musk in the early hours of November 3.
These diamond hands bought in even earlier. In fact, the event occurred on October 31, when the PNUT token was also born. On November 2, many American media outlets began to stir up the topic of 'Mouse Life is Still Life', indicating that many smart money players are not limited to following Musk but are always attentive to hot topics and events in the West.
However, after Musk's shout-out, we indeed saw the most smart money addresses choosing to intervene during this time period.
Enter the market when others are in panic.
From the perspective of buying prices, nearly half of the smart money chose to initially buy PNUT within the price range of $0.05 to $0.1.
From the chart, the yellow box basically represents the time and price range when these top 1,000 holding big player addresses bought the most. In fact, before this price range, PNUT had already experienced two surges, and the market cap reached the range of $50 million to $100 million. Normally, a MEME coin surging to the $50 million to $100 million range in a short time is an exit opportunity for many, but clearly, the real main players seem to have chosen to enter here. This indicates that the secret of smart money may not lie in having to grab early chips, but rather in choosing to enter when others dare not.
Additionally, from the total amount bought on various dates, the main capital inflow for the top 1,000 players was concentrated between November 2nd and 4th, and November 11th to 14th. The first period was when PNUT just started to gain popularity, with most of the main capital laying out during this phase. The second phase was when multiple exchanges, including Binance, announced the listing of PNUT, and it was clear that another part of the main players saw certainty and decided to enter the market. However, by this time, the market cap of PNUT had already approached $1 billion, so these buying amounts are relatively insignificant. Instead, it can be seen that the period from November 2nd to 4th is a clear entry point for the main players.
Big players generally hold positions for longer.
From the holding habits, the main players' holding times are clearly longer than those of retail investors. Among the analyzed addresses, the average holding time is 39 hours, and this does not include addresses that have never sold since buying. If we include addresses that have never sold, the average holding time would be even higher.
Looking at the prices for selling or transferring, the first selling or transferring prices are also mostly concentrated in the price range of $0.05 to $0.1. However, one factor that needs to be considered here is that many big player addresses will distribute tokens to new addresses immediately after buying, which does not count as selling, so the reference significance of the selling price range here is not great. PANews further analyzed individual big player addresses and found that several addresses holding over $10 million have not sold to date.
Who is the real diamond hand? There are addresses with earnings exceeding ten million.
During the investigation, PANews found that multiple addresses' tokens came from some of the same addresses. These addresses are basically new addresses used by these true big players to diversify their funds. In response, PANews conducted some investigations into the true big players behind these.
Among these big player addresses, the most striking is the address J8ZWHVX5CjZWcHb1fqNVSiwjRy21WFj8mxvFDddjbHxv (hereinafter referred to as 'J8ZWH').
This address first bought 151,300 PNUT tokens on November 1, 2024, spending 10 SOL, and then kept averaging down, holding a maximum of 28 million PNUT tokens, with an average holding price of about $0.0001. Calculating at a maximum of $2.46, his return could reach 24,600 times. On November 2, he sold 15.97 million tokens for a profit of $109,371. He still holds nearly $12.6 million worth of PNUT.
Another address, 2h7s3FpSvc6v2oHke6Uqg191B5fPCeFTmMGnh5oPWhX7 (tonkadriving.sol), is also quite legendary. This address discovered PNUT on November 1 and frantically invested funds to buy in, spending $67,000 to buy 9.15 million PNUT tokens, when PNUT's market cap was only about $7.3 million. He completed his initial position within half an hour, and during his buying process, he even pushed the token price up to $0.01. Subsequently, other players began to sell off, while tonkadriving.sol continued to absorb chips, ultimately completing his initial position at an average price of $0.007.
On November 3, tonkadriving.sol sent 4 million PNUT tokens to the creator of PNUT, which was worth $244,000 at the time. If tonkadriving.sol had known these tokens would be worth over $10 million at their peak, would he regret this donation?
Early on-chain players turned $22 into $2.91 million due to forgetfulness.
For MEME players, many enjoy grabbing on-chain tokens; the earlier they buy, the higher the return. PANews analyzed 276 on-chain addresses involved and found that only 4 addresses ultimately appeared in the top 1,000 holding rankings.
For example, the address B8S2aupPvX3ARWgyEYS1gbHc3jTb2Ta4Q2i37HUewGnf used two addresses to make purchases on-chain, spending about $280 to buy 13.75 million PNUT tokens, and sold almost all of these tokens for $5,657 within the next two days. By November 16, this address spent another $148,000 to buy back 86,000 PNUT tokens. Based on the earliest holding, he missed out on a maximum of $34.1 million.
The strongest on-chain player is undoubtedly gUPH84k3YhMSjXSfXrTAUzCjuqQinQMZg9TkAkoSR77. This address spent $22 to buy 2.37 million PNUT tokens on-chain and has not traded since. These tokens are currently worth approximately $2.91 million, yielding a return of 132,000 times. It should be regarded as a model for the 10U War God. However, based on trading habits, this address is highly likely to be a trading bot address, currently engaged in high-frequency trading worth hundreds of dollars. Perhaps the owner of the address has long forgotten that their casual action back then has yielded unimaginable returns. Another on-chain address, CrjPMnpDyJ16qpo1hR74iEQ2bypvAeMqxmxm42tB9ppr, also spent $22, consistently choosing to sell a fixed amount of 5,902 tokens and has sold a total of $194,000 to date, with the account still holding tokens worth approximately $82,000.
It seems that the way to maintain the highest yield is to forget it, but not completely forget it.
In analyzing PNUT, we saw many lucky stories of wealth, as well as many regrets. Many addresses had very low early holding costs but nearly all sold out before PNUT truly surged. From the trading habits, we can see the style of these players; many do not have large amounts of funds, and when they turn from tens of dollars to thousands, they choose to liquidate completely. Little do they know they missed out on tens of millions of dollars in earnings, and this is likely the biggest opportunity in their trading career.
Those with large funds tend to remain calm. They invest tens of thousands to millions of dollars but choose to hold firm, only opting to withdraw their principal when profits are substantial. The rest is letting the bullets fly for a while. Perhaps a saying fits here: one can only earn money within the realm of their understanding.
That said, as an ordinary person, making dozens of times profit in a single trade is already difficult. Moreover, without the release of chips, PNUT might have struggled to become the MEME king of November.
