Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
Latest data shows that XRP's market value briefly surpassed $136.2 billion, surpassing USDT and returning to the "third largest cryptocurrency by market value," returning to the level before the 2020 SEC/Ripple lawsuit.
Previously, Odaily Planet Daily provided a detailed analysis of the "U.S. court ruling that Ripple did not violate federal securities laws" in August, see (XRP once surged over 20%, another phased victory for Ripple against the SEC). Nearly four months later, the price of XRP has surpassed $2.3, increasing nearly fourfold, and the market is relatively optimistic about XRP's future performance.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize and review the recent situation and related information of Ripple and XRP in this article for readers' reference.
The dual overlay of macro and micro factors has led to a surge in XRP's market value.
According to Infinite Market Cap data, based on a market value of $136.2 billion, XRP's market value briefly surpassed China Life, ranking 139th in global assets; currently, its market value has fallen back to around $132.8 billion. Overall, XRP's market value surge is mainly due to a combination of multiple positive macro and micro factors.
On a macro level: Trump's presidency is expected to help settle the "XRP vs SEC dispute."
With Trump's successful election as the new U.S. president, the long-standing debate of whether XRP is a security between Ripple and the SEC may soon reach a final ruling, as Trump, being a "crypto-friendly president," will play a positive role in the future development of the crypto industry.
At the same time, as an active participant in U.S. presidential campaigns, Ripple previously donated $45 million to PAC before the 2024 elections, making it one of the largest donors to Fairshake alongside cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz. Recently, it donated another $25 million to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence crypto political tendencies.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies, including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm, are competing for related positions, seeking to have a voice in his planned U.S. policy reforms, which also lays the groundwork for XRP's recent good market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has frequently spoken out, emphasizing the potential changes in cryptocurrency regulation under President Trump's leadership, mentioning: "Ripple and XRP may face a turning point, as new pro-crypto regulatory changes are expected to bring new hope and potentially resolve years-long legal disputes."
He then pointed out: "The SEC has been intervening in the cryptocurrency market, picking winners and losers for 6 years... and it has been 4 years since the SEC sued Ripple... Now, as these external (frankly unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually disappear, we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, the headwinds are becoming tailwinds, and for those of us who believe in the future of XRP, the opportunity is immense." Additionally, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman also indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump and discussed cryptocurrency-related topics.
In November, the progress of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple was that "the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's litigation briefs to be submitted by January 15, 2025." Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved a final ruling on the resolved Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered a pause on the remaining unresolved lawsuits, shortening the class action timeline and paving the way for the trial to begin on January 21, 2025. Additionally, U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler previously stated he might resign before or after Trump's inauguration, which also contributed to XRP's previous price surge.
Coincidentally, the day before January 21 is exactly Trump’s first day in office. Therefore, it can be said that Trump will play a "key role" in this "struggle between crypto institutions and regulatory agencies."
On a micro level: 1 billion XRP custodially locked, stablecoin release imminent.
From the perspective of the project's own development, XRP may also "bloom anew from an old tree."
One of the important reasons directly driving up the price of XRP may be the "1 billion XRP tokens custodially locked" that occurred early this morning. According to Whale Alert monitoring, at 2:21 AM today, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP in a custodial wallet, valued at approximately $1.546 billion. Previously, Ripple stated that it uses a custodial account system to provide transparency and certainty to the XRP market. The company locks up most of its XRP holdings to ensure it does not supply the market excessively and manipulate prices. However, the company also uses XRP in custodial accounts to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. Releasing 1 billion XRP tokens from the custodial account each month does not mean that all will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutions or retail investors, use some for its purposes, or return some to new trusts.
Additionally, as a crypto payment company, Ripple plans to expand its territory into the stablecoin field. In mid-November, according to official news, Ripple announced it will soon launch the U.S. dollar stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), which is designed for enterprise use cases (such as payments) focusing on stability, efficiency, and transparency, aiming to enhance Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meet the growing demand for dollar-denominated transactions. It is reported that this stablecoin may be launched on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has also taken various actions to promote industry collaboration. In October, Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, supported by B2C 2 market and Keyrock for liquidity. Additionally, according to official news, the crypto payment infrastructure company MoonPay also announced a partnership with Ripple to support users in buying, storing, and managing XRP using their MoonPay accounts. At the end of November, Ripple also announced a partnership with Archax and British asset management company ABRDN PLC to launch the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger.
Stimulated by a series of positive news, Ripple and XRP are welcoming a "crypto second spring."
Moreover, the XRP ETF will also be a major highlight in the crypto market, continuously attracting market attention.
Industry professionals express optimism: Will XRP ETF go live first?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the XRP ETF is "inevitable." His primary basis comes from the growing share of Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to the latest data, the total on-chain holdings of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs surpassed 1.12 million BTC (approximately 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holding value reached $10.89 billion.
Dune data panel.
At the same time, XRP has received strong support from crypto industry professionals from different fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF registration has been initiated: WisdomTree takes the lead, followed closely by Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares.
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA, and the company has confirmed it is a legal filing. WisdomTree reportedly manages over $100 billion in assets.
At the same time, according to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, "Currently, there are 3 ETF applications holding the currently third largest cryptocurrency by market cap, XRP."
Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares have all submitted applications for a spot XRP ETF. It is speculated that other issuers will also join in.
"Grayscale Select": XRP has now joined the crypto investment portfolio.
At the beginning of November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP Trust Fund is now open to accredited investors, providing an investment opportunity to access XRP. XRP is the core token supporting the distributed network XRP Ledger for cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale stated again that it has opened private placements for 17 token trust funds, including XRP, to qualified accredited investors.
The results proved that Grayscale's choice was very wise: According to statistics, Grayscale's cryptocurrency holdings value saw significant growth in November. Based on data from Cryptorank, its cryptocurrency holdings' market value increased by over 85% in the past month, driven mainly by tokens including XRP (which saw a rise of over 262% during the same period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a partner of Ripple.
In November, Ripple announced it would invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, although the specific investment amount was not disclosed. It is understood that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP was previously known as the "European XRP ETP," which is part of Bitwise’s suite of crypto asset funds.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that deciding to invest in Bitwise funds aligns very well with the trend of increasing interest in crypto asset-related exchange-traded products. Subsequently, Bitwise announced that the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) has surpassed $80 million in assets under management, with Ripple as one of the investors. This product is listed and traded on Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry professionals are expressing their stance: Solana, BNB, ADA, and others are all showing support.
Just today, Solana co-founder toly stated: "We need a national XRP reserve." This statement is also seen as a response to Trump's earlier emphasis on "establishing a national Bitcoin strategic reserve."
At the end of November, CZ retweeted news stating that because XRP is not a security but rather a commodity under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. SEC may abandon the Ripple case. This news originated from an interview with former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, calling him a "great CEO," and described their interaction as "highly collaborative." This public exchange has sparked speculation that Cardano and Ripple may explore establishing a strategic partnership.
On the data front: The market is active in trading, with multiple data points hitting historical highs.
From the perspective of market data, XRP is also one of the leaders.
In the South Korean market, Upbit's trading volume increased by more than 100% within seven days, with cryptocurrencies including XRP being the major contributors. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far exceeding Bitcoin's trading volume of $30.1 billion.
In terms of price, XRP briefly broke through $2.29 today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
In addition, in terms of contract data, according to Coinglass data, the total open positions for XRP futures contracts across the network amounted to 1.739 billion ETH, approximately $4.051 billion, hitting a historical high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, the open positions for Bybit XRP contracts reached 548 million XRP (approximately $1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP surpassed $2, its 24-hour trading volume also exceeded $25 billion, currently reaching $25,338,798,676, with a trading volume to market cap ratio of 18.4%, indicating a relatively high trading activity compared to its market cap.
To add, influenced by various positive news, posts related to XRP on platform X have reached 480,000, far exceeding the content related to the meme-heavy DOGE.
One of the content indicators on platform X.
If everything goes well, the XRP ETF may become the "third cryptocurrency ETF" in the U.S. market after BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: Where is the future direction of Ripple and XRP?
As XRP's market value briefly returned to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, this 6-year-long "first case of crypto regulation" originating in 2018 is about to reach its conclusion, and there are differing opinions in the market regarding the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of the major Japanese financial services firm SBI Holdings, stated that once the SEC issue is resolved, Ripple should start preparing for an IPO. (Odaily Planet Daily note: SBI Holdings has been cooperating with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovations. Kitao is the core figure in the Ripple-SBI collaboration and joined Ripple's board in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017 when he predicted XRP as the global standard for digital currency, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs, and scalability.) Although similar proposals have been shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse in the past, they can still be seen as one of the possible directions for Ripple's future.
After all, as the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies continues to improve, there may be more "cryptocurrency concept stocks" landing in the U.S. stock market. At that time, Ripple and XRP may welcome another wave of development peaks.
