#今日市场观点

Based on what we know today, some may argue that there is reason to skip a rate cut at the next meeting. Recently, monthly inflation data has risen significantly, and we do not know whether this rise in inflation will persist or reverse, as we saw a year ago. Due to strikes and hurricanes, recent labor market data gives us a blurred view of the true state of the labor market, and this view is unlikely to become clearer in the coming months. Therefore, we could advocate for not changing the policy rate at the upcoming meeting, but instead adjusting our policy stance in a prudent manner. In fact, if policymakers' estimates for the target range by the end of next year are close to correct, then the committee is likely to skip rate cuts multiple times in the process of achieving its goals.