The key for Bitcoin (BTC) to hit $100,000 hinges on whether the demand from short-term holders (STH) can offset the selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH). According to the 'Bitfinex Alpha' report, despite a recent price correction of 8.64%, November still closed at $96,506, marking a monthly increase of 37.3%, making it the second-best performing month of the year.

The report points out that historical data from previous halvings shows that Bitcoin's average increase is 38.86%, supporting further gains in December. However, large-scale options expiration at the end of the month may bring volatility.

Supply and Demand

Since the supply peak in September, LTH has sold approximately 508,990 BTC, but the market's absorption capacity is key. Currently, STH supply is nearing a cycle high of 3,282,000 BTC, indicating that there is still potential for a bull market. The SOPR indicator for LTH is 2.6, down from the peak of 3, suggesting that the selling pressure has not yet reached an extreme.

December Outlook

If STH demand is sufficient to absorb the selling pressure from LTH, Bitcoin is likely to make strides towards $100,000. Although volatility may increase, the strong momentum accumulated in November and the halving effect still provide support for December's trend. Investors need to pay attention to the supply-demand balance to gauge market direction.