Arkham pointed out in a post at midnight today that the U.S. government transferred 19,800 bitcoins to Coinbase Prime, raising speculation that this is for a potential sale. This article provides a detailed analysis.
According to a post from a few hours ago on the on-chain data analysis platform Arkham, the U.S. government has transferred 19,800 bitcoins (worth $1.92 billion) to the U.S. exchange Coinbase Prime. This has once again sparked market speculation about whether the U.S. government will execute another sale of BTC before Trump takes office.
Is the U.S. government going to sell BTC again? It may not necessarily be the case.
Generally speaking, depositing to an exchange indicates an intention to sell assets. The U.S. government holds over 200,000 BTC, which has always attracted market attention, but this transfer may not necessarily be for the purpose of selling bitcoins.
First of all, because the U.S. Marshals Service under the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced in July that it had established a partnership with Coinbase Prime to 'safeguard and trade' digital assets, this transfer may be for asset custody.
On the other hand, if the U.S. government really intends to sell BTC, there should also be legal documents publicizing the sale plan. According to court documents, the last time the U.S. government confirmed the sale of Silk Road assets was in March 2023, when it sold 9,861 tokens for $216 million. (Authorities outlined a plan in the documents to sell the remaining assets in four batches that year.)
Therefore, investors do not need to panic too much right now and can continue to observe patiently.
BTC once fell below $95,000
However, it is quite coincidental that shortly after the U.S. government transferred a large amount of BTC, bitcoin plummeted to a low of around $94,388 at about 01:45 this morning. There was a slight rebound before the deadline, currently reported at $95,659, down 2.32% in the last 24 hours.
Does the U.S. government often experience price drops each time it transfers BTC to Coinbase?
It is worth noting that, according to Lookonchain monitoring statistics, the U.S. government transferred a total of 15,940 bitcoins to Coinbase Prime in three batches this year. Statistics show that the price of BTC dropped by about 5% within three days after the first two transfers.
In April, 2,000 BTC were transferred
In mid-June, 3,940 BTC were transferred
In mid-August, 10,000 BTC were transferred (there was a drop on that day, followed by a rebound)
Whether we will see the same phenomenon this time remains to be seen...
