Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $ 3,700, reaching a significant milestone and recording an all-time high in open interest. The open interest (Open Interest – OI), one of the critical indicators in the derivatives markets of Ethereum, the leader of the altcoin market, broke a new record by exceeding $ 17 billion. However, does this increase indicate that the price of ETH will rise even higher, or will it lead to a negative development?
An increase in open interest indicates that investors are increasingly interested in futures or options contracts and that more capital is flowing into the market. On the other hand, another important indicator in the derivatives market, the funding rate, has also seen a significant increase in recent days. An increase in the funding rate usually indicates that the market is optimistic and investors are willing to pay more to maintain their long positions.
However, while these developments may have initially led to the perception that prices would rise further, historical data shows that large increases in open positions have mostly resulted in price corrections. Similar increases in November 2021 and June 2024 suggested that the market had reached its peak.
To determine whether Ethereum has reached its market peak, on-chain data was examined in detail. According to data provided by CryptoQuant, an increase in ETH reserves on exchanges is observed. This indicates that selling pressure is increasing. In addition, the stochastic oscillator has entered the overbought region, indicating that sales may accelerate and price corrections are possible.
In addition, the seller exhaustion index has also peaked. According to historical data, the peak of this metric led to a sharp drop in ETH prices. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet entered the overbought territory, meaning there is still room for more buying and Ethereum could continue its bullish momentum.