It's a new month again, and there isn't much time left until the New Year. I wonder if this year's gains in the cryptocurrency circle have met my expectations. I'm relatively satisfied here because the market this year has indeed been quite good, and making money has been relatively easy.
Current market expectations!
This wave of market activity mainly focuses on old coins on CEX, with almost all old coins increasing by more than 30%. This wave is somewhat reminiscent of the phase after the DeFi boom in 2020, when large funds collectively returned to CEX. Few were able to successfully capture the CEX market at that time; many made money in DeFi but missed the CEX opportunity.
Ethereum is now also showing signs of revival. Observing the market a few days ago, it can be seen that during this major Bitcoin pullback, altcoins hardly followed the decline, and the performance of the 'king of altcoins' ETH even surpassed the overall market index CoinDesk 20, which increased by 0.5% during the same period.
Market sector rotation is underway, and investors are starting to shift funds towards smaller-scale, higher-risk cryptocurrencies, resulting in strong performances from established altcoins like DOGE, DASH, XRP, LTC!
Expectations for the market in early December! What potential coins can be focused on in the future!
1. Market pace accelerates: With the accelerated inflow of ETH ETFs, ETH and other altcoins will welcome stronger upward momentum. The overall market pace will no longer be as slow as in the past two weeks but will gradually enter a more active and rapid state.
2. New coins/next-generation coins take over, rotation of old coins comes to an end: The rotation of old coins is nearing its end, and the market focus will gradually shift to new or next-generation coins. These coins may become the hotspots in December, attracting a large influx of funds and becoming the focus of the market.
3. Divergence in altcoin trends intensifies: The performance of altcoins will no longer simply follow the overall rise of ETH but will begin to show more pronounced sector rotation phenomena. The performance differences among coins in different tracks will gradually increase, and the structural differentiation in the market will become more apparent.
Currently, for coins like FIL, EOS, ARB, while they may experience a major upward trend, I prefer to take advantage of the opportunity and then exit, focusing most of my energy on capturing the main line while dedicating a small portion to side lines. Even if I'm wrong, I won’t miss the overall BETA returns of the bull market; but if I'm right, it’s like having a successful strategy.
Altcoins are still in the rebound and catch-up stage. Unless there are large applications in certain ecosystems, these coins will not experience sustained major upward trends. For example, Bitcoin may consolidate around $100,000, meme coins are also undergoing adjustments, and funds are starting to flow into the altcoin sector, driving the short-term market.
From a fundamental perspective, Ethereum's on-chain activities and demand have not changed significantly, gas fees remain at historically low levels, and inflationary pressure still exists. The high FDV and ongoing unlocking issues of altcoins remain unresolved.
Therefore, the current market is still in the rebound and catch-up stage. Attention can be focused on the rebound potential of tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem. After all, the US ETFs currently only involve Bitcoin and Ethereum, and as the 'king of the ecosystem', Ethereum's position remains solid. The previous FUD led to a significant drop in its ecological tokens, leaving relatively large space for rebound. The mainstream options in the market, such as leading projects, public chains, DeFi, L2, etc., are usually the first choice! For example, leading staking token LDO; layer 2 solutions like OP, zk, and domain-related ENS, all deserve attention.
