Author: Socra, Jinse Finance
On December 2, XRP's market value surpassed USDT and Solana, ranking third in the cryptocurrency market value list, and exceeded Pinduoduo, rising to the 138th position among global mainstream assets.
As XRP rose and broke through 2 USD, it also successfully set a new high since April 2021. Ripple's CEO had stated before XRP's takeoff that the Trump administration brought new hope to the cryptocurrency industry, and XRP might welcome a turnaround. What surprised many investors was that this turning point came quickly and violently, with XRP's price increasing by 400% in the past month. However, given such a high increase, can one still buy XRP now?
1. XRP Old Tree Blossoms
In early November this year, the price of XRP hovered around 0.5 USD. However, after the Ripple CEO stated on November 10 that Trump might bring a turnaround for XRP, the price of XRP really soared.
According to CoinMarketcap data, as of the writing, XRP has risen from about 0.5 USD to around 2.5 USD, with a gain of 400% in the past month.
After reaching a peak of 1.966 USD during the bullish market in April 2021, XRP has continuously declined until now, spanning a duration of three and a half years, with a lowest drop to 0.287 USD.
The surge in XRP's price has also led to a skyrocketing market value, not only surpassing USDT and Solana with a market value of nearly 140 billion USD, ranking third in cryptocurrency market value, but also surpassing traditional companies like Pinduoduo and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, rising to the 136th position among global mainstream assets.
Additionally, data shows that XRP is actively traded on major exchanges. The 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW on the South Korean exchange Upbit reached 3.8 billion USD, which is 11 times its BTC trading volume, surpassing Binance's XRP spot trading volume; on Bithumb, the 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW reached 1.2 billion USD, accounting for 32% of its total trading volume.
Data from xrpscan also shows that in November, the number of active XRP accounts increased by 100%, and its on-chain indicators show signs of positive recovery. The number of active accounts or unique senders on the XRP network increased from 15,592 on November 1 to 47,044 on November 16. The total number of active accounts in November averaged doubled (increased by 100%) from about 12,000 to 25,000 this month. Similarly, the number of new accounts activated on the XRP ledger in November also increased significantly, indicating a large influx of new users to the network.
Regarding the above performance of XRP, Ripple's CEO seems to have anticipated it. He stated as early as the beginning of November that the Trump administration might bring new hope to the cryptocurrency industry, and XRP might welcome a turnaround.
He explained that the Trump administration might change cryptocurrency regulation after taking office, resolving Ripple's years-long legal disputes. He mentioned that since the SEC sued Ripple, XRP has experienced many setbacks, but as adverse market factors fade, the situation is changing, and XRP's future prospects are becoming broader.
2. Multiple Positive Factors
1. Policy Easing Expectations
The expectations for positive cryptocurrency policies following Trump's assumption of office continue to bring optimistic confidence to the cryptocurrency industry, and Ripple's CEO also mentioned that Trump is likely to resolve Ripple's years-long legal disputes.
Subsequently, news revealed that Trump might meet with the Ripple CEO and other representatives from the cryptocurrency industry to discuss formulating U.S. cryptocurrency policy.
Companies like Ripple are competing for a seat on the cryptocurrency committee promised by Trump, seeking a voice in his planned U.S. policy reforms.
The former chairman of the CFTC also predicted that the SEC would drop its lawsuit against Ripple, indicating that a regulatory shift might trigger a significant surge in XRP.
2. Expectations for the Launch of XRP ETF and Financial Products
Ripple's CEO stated that the XRP ETF is destined to be launched.
Bloomberg ETF analysts pointed out that XRP and other altcoin ETFs may need to be approved by the end of 2025, and the new SEC leadership in 2025 may be more friendly towards cryptocurrencies, at which point ETF products may be allowed to include staking features.
Ripple is expected to obtain approval from the New York Department of Financial Services to issue the stablecoin RLUSD, which may launch on December 4. If approved, Ripple will be able to legally offer RLUSD to the public, making it a major player in the regulated digital financial market in New York and the broader stablecoin ecosystem, which will also put Ripple in direct competition with other well-known U.S. stablecoin issuers such as Circle, Paxos, and Gemini.
WisdomTree will launch an XRP ETP on European exchanges, which will be 100% backed by spot XRP. The assets will be stored in cold wallets and will adopt a dual custody model, managed by regulated custodians.
In addition, WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in the state of Delaware in the U.S. 21Shares has also submitted an S-1 form to the SEC to apply for the launch of an XRP ETF, and Bitwise has submitted an XRP ETF application in Delaware.
Grayscale has opened private placement subscriptions for a trust fund that includes XRP and 17 other tokens for qualified investors. Robinhood's U.S. platform has re-listed SOL, ADA, and XRP and added PEPE.
3. Giant Whale Boost
On the South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb, XRP trading volumes reached 3.8 billion USD and 1.2 billion USD respectively, and analysis agency Scopescan stated that South Korean investors may be the main driving force behind the rise in XRP prices.
At the beginning of November, 400 million XRP were unlocked from an unknown custody wallet, equivalent to about 203 million USD.
At the end of September, Ripple whales purchased over 470 million XRP within 10 consecutive days.
However, despite XRP's massive rise and multiple positive factors, some analysts have raised warnings:
CryptoQuant Analyst: XRP open interest has risen by 37%, which may lead to a decline; the last similar event resulted in a 17% drop.
Some analysts also believe that the current target price for XRP may be between 1.95 USD and 2.05 USD, but it is noteworthy that since November 16, XRP prices and trading volumes have shown an inverse correlation, indicating that XRP is undergoing a distribution phase, and market traders may be looking to sell.
Summary
As an established project, it is not easy for XRP to erupt again. However, there are various positive factors surrounding it recently, whether in terms of policy regulation or expectations for the launch of financial products like ETFs, which have given investors considerable hope. However, the cryptocurrency market has a tradition of favoring new over old, and whether XRP can continue to grow stronger and create brilliance again remains to be seen over time.
