Bitcoin has once again impressed investors with the momentum it gained in 2024. Macroeconomic factors and sectoral developments played an important role in the increase in the value of this leading cryptocurrency. In particular, the halving effect and the upcoming presidential elections in the US have allowed Bitcoin to gain 129% since the beginning of the year. According to CryptoQuant data, while the supply of Bitcoin on digital asset exchanges has fallen below 2.5 million, this limited supply reinforces expectations that the price will increase.
November 2024 has been a strong bullish month for Bitcoin. According to ICO Analytics reports, Bitcoin has gained 37% this month. This is one of the highest performances in November since 2011. Bitcoin has historically been seen as providing significant gains to investors in November, with increases of 459% in 2013, 54% in 2017, and 42% in 2020.
This rise is driven by the halving effect being consistent with historical price movements. As in previous halving cycles, the Bitcoin price is gaining momentum in the 6-7 months following the halving. This leads investors to expect greater gains throughout 2024. In November, the price surpassed $99,000, raising expectations that this level will be tested soon. However, while this level was not reached in the spot market, Bitcoin futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) rose to $100,200. This brought predictions that the spot price could also reach this level in the short term. However, volatility poses a significant obstacle to Bitcoin reaching $100,000. As prices approach this level, they show pullbacks between $96,000-98,000, and these movements are associated with investors taking profits.
There are many predictions about Bitcoin’s future price movements. Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal predicts that Bitcoin’s price will reach $110,000 in January 2025 and will rise even higher by the end of the year. Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow, on the other hand, brings up a spectacular bullish scenario that he calls the “Omega Candle.” According to this theory, as nation states, institutional investors, and individual buyers increase their interest in Bitcoin, the price could rise to $10,000 per day, in which case Bitcoin could exceed $1 million per coin.
Bitcoin has been a great source of confidence for both investors and industry analysts with its performance in 2024. The halving effect, limited supply, and institutional interest are among the main factors that continue to increase the value of Bitcoin. However, volatility and market dynamics present opportunities as well as risks for investors. The $100,000 level may only be a milestone for Bitcoin; the real challenge will be to break through this level and establish a sustainable uptrend.
Although Bitcoin has shown a strong performance, its dominance in the market continues to decline. As of November 30, 2024, Bitcoin's dominance has fallen to 56.1%. This situation is interpreted as investors directing their earnings to altcoins and the beginning of a potential altcoin season. Especially Ethereum, Solana and other major altcoins have become the focus of investors.