Author: Socra, Golden Finance
On December 2, XRP's market capitalization surpassed USDT and Solana, ranking third in the cryptocurrency market capitalization list, even surpassing Pinduoduo, rising to the 138th position among global mainstream assets.
As XRP's price rose above $2, it also successfully set a new high since April 2021. Just before XRP took off, Ripple's CEO mentioned that the Trump administration brought new hope to the cryptocurrency industry, and XRP might welcome a turning point. What surprised many investors was how quickly and dramatically this turning point came; in the past month, XRP's price has surged by 400%. However, with such a high increase, can one still invest in XRP now?
1. XRP Blossoming Again
At the beginning of November this year, the price of XRP hovered around $0.5. However, after Ripple's CEO stated on November 10th that Trump might bring a turning point for XRP, its price skyrocketed.
According to CoinMarketcap data, as of the writing, XRP has risen from about $0.5 to around $2.5, with a staggering increase of 400% in the past month.
Since reaching a peak of $1.966 during the bull market in April 2021, XRP has continuously fallen, with a duration of 3.5 years, during which it fell to as low as $0.287.
The surge in XRP's price has also led to a sharp increase in market capitalization, surpassing USDT and Solana with a market capitalization of nearly $140 billion, ranking third in the cryptocurrency market capitalization list. Moreover, compared to traditional companies, it surpassed Pinduoduo and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, rising to the 136th position among global mainstream assets.
Other data shows that XRP is actively traded across major exchanges. The 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW on the South Korean exchange Upbit reached $3.8 billion, which is 11 times its BTC trading volume, exceeding Binance's XRP spot trading volume; the 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW on Bithumb reached $1.2 billion, accounting for 32% of its total trading volume.
Data from xrpscan also shows that the number of active XRP accounts doubled in November, with on-chain indicators showing positive signs of recovery. The number of active accounts or unique senders on the XRP network increased from 15,592 on November 1 to 47,044 on November 16. The total number of active accounts in November averaged doubled (100% increase) from around 12,000 to 25,000 this month. Similarly, the number of new accounts activated on the XRP ledger in November also increased significantly, indicating a large influx of new users onto the network.
Regarding XRP's performance, Ripple's CEO seems to have anticipated it. He stated as early as the beginning of November that the Trump administration could bring new hope to the cryptocurrency industry, and XRP might welcome a turning point.
He explained that the Trump administration may change cryptocurrency regulation and resolve Ripple's years-long legal disputes. He mentioned that since the SEC sued Ripple, XRP has faced many setbacks, but with adverse market factors receding, the situation is changing, and the future prospects for XRP are becoming broader.
2. Multiple Positive Factors
1. Expectations of Policy Easing
The expectations for favorable cryptocurrency policies after Trump's administration continue to bring optimism to the cryptocurrency industry. Ripple's CEO also mentioned that Trump hopes to resolve Ripple's years-long legal disputes.
Subsequently, news revealed that Trump might meet with Ripple's CEO and other representatives from the crypto industry to discuss the formulation of U.S. cryptocurrency policy.
Ripple and other companies are competing for the cryptocurrency committee seat promised by Trump, seeking to have a voice in his planned U.S. policy reforms.
The former CFTC chairman also predicted that the SEC would drop the lawsuit against Ripple, indicating that a regulatory shift could lead to a significant rise in XRP.
2. Expectations for the Launch of XRP ETF and Financial Products
Ripple's CEO stated that the XRP ETF is destined to be launched.
Bloomberg ETF analysts pointed out that altcoin ETFs like XRP may need to be approved by the end of 2025. The new SEC leadership in 2025 may be more friendly towards cryptocurrencies, potentially allowing ETF products to incorporate staking features.
Ripple is expected to receive approval from the New York Department of Financial Services to issue the stablecoin RLUSD, which may be launched on December 4. If approved, Ripple will be able to legally offer RLUSD to the public, making it a major participant in New York's regulated digital financial market and the broader stablecoin ecosystem. This move will also put Ripple in direct competition with other well-known U.S. stablecoin issuers such as Circle, Paxos, and Gemini.
WisdomTree will launch an XRP ETP on European exchanges, which will be 100% backed by spot XRP, with assets stored in cold wallets and adopting a dual custody model, managed by regulated custodians.
Additionally, WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA. 21Shares has also submitted an S-1 form to the U.S. SEC to apply for the launch of an XRP ETF, and Bitwise has submitted an XRP ETF application in Delaware.
Grayscale is opening a private placement trust fund subscription for qualified investors, including XRP and 17 other tokens. Robinhood's U.S. platform has re-listed SOL, ADA, and XRP, and added PEPE.
3. Whales Driving Up
On the South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb, XRP trading volumes reached $3.8 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. Research agency Scopescan indicated that South Korean investors might be the main driving force behind the rise in XRP prices.
In early November, 400 million XRP were unlocked from an unknown custody wallet, equivalent to approximately $203 million.
At the end of September, Ripple whales purchased over 470 million XRP continuously over a span of 10 days.
However, despite XRP's massive increase and various positive factors, some analysts have raised warnings:
CryptoQuant analysts: The number of open contracts for XRP has increased by 37%, which may lead to a decline. The last similar incident caused a 17% drop.
Another analysis suggests that the current target price for XRP may be between $1.95 and $2.05. However, it is important to note that since November 16, XRP's price and trading volume have shown an inverse correlation, indicating that XRP is experiencing a distribution phase, and market traders may be looking to sell.
Summary
As an established project, it is not easy for XRP to explode again. Recently, there have been multiple positive factors surrounding it, whether it is the expectations of regulatory policies or the launch of financial products such as ETFs, all of which have led investors to have significant expectations. However, the cryptocurrency market has a long-standing investment tradition of favoring new projects over old ones. Whether XRP can continue to grow stronger and create brilliance again remains to be seen with time.
