Bitcoin previously touched $99,800, and as it was about to reach the historic price of $100,000, it gradually pulled back and once fell below $91,000. The reason behind this is not particularly special; it's simply that investors began to take profits, and when a significant position exited, the price naturally dropped.
At present, it seems that Bitcoin may still remain in the range of $95,000 to $98,000 for consolidation and fluctuations, or may dip slightly. There should be no upward breakthrough in the short term. SOL also shows signs of a short-term top.
It's worth mentioning that ETH has launched a counterattack during this golden time, with the price nearing $3,700, and the weekly increase of 11.2% far exceeding Bitcoin. At the same time, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been restored, indicating that funds have begun to flow from Bitcoin to Ethereum. This signal establishes the second phase of the bull market, with funds flowing to other cryptocurrencies.
Today's BTC Fear and Greed Index has reached 80, and the market is still mainly anxious. In this case, it's suitable to reduce leverage, maintain good spot holdings, and wait for Bitcoin to gather strength.
Is the altcoin carnival season starting?
Recently, as sectors rotate, altcoins have begun to catch up, and many people's FOMO sentiment seems to have returned.
From the perspective of this altcoin season index, it has currently reached the highest level since January 2024, which means that many altcoins are beginning to outperform Bitcoin again, and a new round of altcoin season seems to have started. As shown in the figure below.
Recently, Bitcoin has been dominating, and many people were not optimistic about altcoins. Some investors in the market believe there won't be an altcoin season in this bull market. However, this may still be a matter of understanding. It can only be said that if we want to see an altcoin season like the previous bull market, there may not be many opportunities, but as long as the timing for speculation arrives, there are still some altcoins (too many projects born in this cycle) that may surge in the short term.
Currently, the trend of Ethereum and altcoins has taken shape, with the inflow of ETF funds accelerating, Bitcoin's market share declining, and the upward trend of Ethereum's exchange rate becoming very obvious.
This indicates that Bitcoin's performance is starting to weaken, while Ethereum and other altcoins are beginning to gain momentum. This situation is a typical altcoin market; as long as Bitcoin can remain stable, altcoins may rotate and rise.
Old coins are experiencing a resurgence; why have old coins been rising so sharply recently?
Mainly due to the favorable policies of Trump.
He hopes to eliminate all capital gains taxes on cryptocurrencies issued by American companies.
This means that the profits obtained by Americans holding crypto assets like ADA, ALGO, XRP, and HBAR will be completely tax-free, as the creators of these coins are American companies.
On the Coinbase exchange, XRP surprisingly ranks first in spot trading volume, with its trading volume equal to the combined total of BTC, ETH, and DOGE, indicating that the FOMO sentiment among American investors has risen.
XRP's market capitalization has also reached a new high, returning to the top three, and it plans to issue a new stablecoin.
Looking at the current trend, as Ethereum rises, funds are starting to flow into altcoins on exchanges. If you hold altcoin projects, don’t easily switch positions; there is a high probability of a rotation market.
The reason for the previous lack of an altcoin season was the market's lack of new funds, but as the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, the incremental funds in the market are gradually increasing. The best targets for speculation right now are two types: newly launched meme coins and some newly active old coins.
In the new month, we will continue to layout; everyone needs to pay attention to the following points:
1. The upward slope of ETH's exchange rate is too steep, so a consolidation is better, which is conducive to further climbing. Support is at 0.373, while 3730 is a strong resistance level; support should first be observed around 3570.
2. Altcoins have experienced daily and weekly rebounds following Ethereum's lead, and the possibility of a slight adjustment in the market has increased.
3. There is a non-farm payroll report on the 5th of this month, a CPI report on the 11th, and Christmas at the end of the month, which may cause significant fluctuations in the market.
4. Microsoft will hold a board meeting at the beginning of the month to decide whether to include BTC in the company's reserve asset allocation. The founder of MicroStrategy, Saylor, has also been invited to speak for 3 minutes to Microsoft's shareholders, and he is very confident about Microsoft's resolution. If the proposal passes, there will be another wave of buying power!