The main upward wave of Ethereum has yet to arrive, but the second wave of altcoin markets is already brewing!
Today, the old mainstream led by XRP has welcomed a wave of sustained increase, mainly because investors in these varieties have mostly been washed out, and the vehicle is relatively light. Bitcoin is currently testing the support around 95000 downwards, and according to the liquidation map, the support around 95000 is still quite strong over the past seven days, with the pressure above at around 99000. In the evening, when American institutions start working, it is expected to easily rise, so there is actually nothing to worry about during the daytime pullback.
From the market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin, there is still some room for a pullback, indicating that altcoins have some room for a rebound.
In the past month, the total market cap of altcoins ranked outside the top 10 has doubled, while Bitcoin has risen by 50%. Simply put, if your account hasn't doubled in the past month, you've underperformed the average altcoin increase; if the increase is less than 50%, you've even underperformed Bitcoin.
Currently, there is a clear switch in funds in the market. Previously, Bitcoin + meme coins were a combination, now traditional altcoins driven by ETH are another combination. The Solana series has already exploded, so it is temporarily subdued, while the BSC series has yet to explode. Over the past ten days, funds have clearly flowed out of Bitcoin speculation into the Ethereum system, and funds from on-chain low-quality coins have also followed. At present, it is believed that the speculation in traditional altcoins will continue.
In the past two years, Bitcoin's price has increased sixfold, but altcoins have only increased less than threefold. Considering that the funding environment is far from what it was in 2021, the overall expectation for this round of altcoins has been significantly lowered; achieving a few times return on full positions would be very satisfactory.
After this round, most people have understood the impact of the macro funding environment on altcoins. Similar to small stocks in the Russell 2000 of the US stock market, small stocks in the Russell 2000 can significantly outperform large tech stocks during the easing phase. Altcoins can significantly outperform Bitcoin; otherwise, even in a bull cycle, in a tightening state, holding altcoins for 85% of the time can be quite painful. The next bull-bear cycle must consider the macro funding environment to determine the best allocation of coins.
In addition to the altcoin market brought about by some fund switching, there is another possibility next year that a new batch of ETF applications will be approved. Currently, media reports have mentioned four altcoins applying for ETFs, with another two preparing. These ETF applications may serve as the foundation for the next round of altcoin markets, but the timing is estimated to be 2025 or even later, which is the second wave of market possibilities that can be thought of under the condition of no macro easing.
Speaking of ETH, last Friday, the ETF inflow for Ethereum exceeded $330 million in a single day, while Bitcoin’s inflow on the same day was only $320 million. This is the first time in human history that Ethereum's ETF has outperformed Bitcoin in a single day, and it even trended on social media, so Ethereum's performance over the weekend was also quite good, with the price peaking at 3760.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has also exceeded 0.038, which can be considered a minor rebound. There is still a gap before Ethereum truly explodes; after all, Bitcoin has reached new highs so many times, while Ethereum hasn't even returned to this year's 3977 in May and 4093 in March, and is still 1000 dollars away from its historical high of 4800, which is much further than Bitcoin is from 100k. It can only be said that Ethereum still has a lot of upward potential.
Why have these old altcoins surged so much recently?
This is mainly due to favorable policies from Trump.
He hopes to eliminate all capital gains taxes imposed on cryptocurrencies issued by American companies.
This means that Americans holding ADA, ALGO, XRP, HBAR, and other crypto assets will enjoy profits that are completely tax-free, as the creators of these coins are American companies.
On Coinbase, the top spot trading volume is actually XRP, with its trading volume equal to the sum of BTC, ETH, and DOGE, indicating that American investors' FOMO sentiment has risen.
The market cap of XRP also reached a new high, returning to the top three, and it plans to issue a new stablecoin.
The trading volume of XLM has also surpassed SOL. XLM is an old project launched in 2014, which has lost 90% over the past four years, but in the last three weeks, it has nearly returned to its historical high.
Based on the current trend, as Ethereum rises, funds are starting to flow into altcoins on exchanges. Those who previously held altcoin projects shouldn't change positions easily, as there is a high probability of a rotation market.
The reason there hasn't been an altcoin season before is that the market lacked new funds, but with the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates, the market's incremental funds are gradually increasing.
Although many coins on exchanges are trash, they can still be picked up for speculation.
However, there are methods to pick these projects.
At present, the best speculation targets are two types: newly launched meme coins and some reactivated old coins.
Recently, the coins that have surged the most are also the old coins from 2017 and this year's new meme coins, as they have the least supply pressure.
In the new month, we continue to layout, and there are several points everyone needs to pay attention to:
1. The exchange rate of ETH has risen too steeply, so horizontal consolidation is preferable as it is conducive to further rises. The support to watch is at 0.373, while 3730 is also a strong resistance level, with initial support at around 3570.
2. Altcoins have already shown daily and weekly rebounds following the lead of Ethereum, making minor market adjustments more likely.
3. There is a non-farm payroll on the 5th of this month, a CPI on the 11th, and Christmas at the end of the month, which may cause significant market fluctuations.
Brothers, come here quickly to gather!
Content:
1. Seizing the opportunity to build positions in the next three months can help many people cross classes again in a bull market!
2. There are spot opportunities in altcoins, and wave and long-term strategies will be shared in real-time!
3. The market has become active again, and there is definitely a need for new star sectors and coins to ignite a new bull market. Catching one can lead to big profits, catching several can lead to explosive profits!
