On the first trading day of December, the global market felt the "chill" of the strengthening US dollar. Gold, crude oil, and offshore RMB fell one after another. Gold fell by nearly $30 during the Asian trading session alone, and the offshore RMB also fell below 7.28.
A-shares held up in this situation. Affected by the better-than-expected official manufacturing PMI on Saturday and Caixin PMI on Monday, the manufacturing data expanded modestly, indicating that the stimulus policy has begun to take effect. $BTC $ETH
The rise in the US dollar index is related to Trump's tariff threats against BRICS countries, which means that the affected countries may need to tolerate further depreciation of their currencies to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
From a technical chart perspective, the US dollar index hit a resistance level during the Asian trading session, and the upward momentum is hindered. If it cannot rise further, it may initiate a downward trend, so today’s closing price holds significant reference value. However, seasonal factors are not favorable for the dollar; according to statistics, in December over the past decade, the dollar has fallen in eight out of ten years—because traders typically sell dollars and buy high-risk assets in anticipation of the 'Christmas rally.'
Whether the offshore RMB can break below the 7.30 level and whether gold can hold above 2600 USD all depends on whether the US dollar index can initiate a new round of increases.
For traders, the priority of data has decreased, and the new challenge will be to assess the upcoming tariff risks. Trump's remarks last week may be a potential rehearsal for the 'Trump 2.0 era' of tariff diplomacy, where tariffs will become his tools for negotiation and problem-solving.
China may pause policy adjustments and enter a policy vacuum period, which will last until March next year, unless the stock market experiences a significant decline.#NFT市场回暖 #ETH持续飙升 #山寨季來了？ #山寨币走势展望 #XRP解锁新趋势
