Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically performs very well in December after the U.S. presidential election, with price increases ranging from 30% to 46%. Combining this pattern with recent market trends, analysts predict that Bitcoin's price could soar to $141,000.
After Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin recorded a strong increase of 37.3% in November. Now, despite BTC's current price being around $96,600, both market sentiment and historical trends indicate a high likelihood of continuing the upward trend in December. If a 46% increase is realized in December, BTC may achieve a historic breakthrough, reaching the milestone of $140,000.
Investors need to closely monitor market trends at this stage while being wary of potential risks brought by high volatility. As the year-end approaches, factors such as the policy environment, market sentiment, and fund flows may become significant drivers for further increases in Bitcoin's price.
Will Bitcoin's price rise in December?
After achieving a significant increase of 37.3% in November, the market is filled with expectations for Bitcoin's year-end performance in December. According to the latest report from blockchain analysis platform Spot On Chain, Bitcoin's historical average price increase in December after elections is between 30% and 46%.
As of now, Bitcoin's price is $96,922, with a total market capitalization of approximately $1.918 trillion. Based on this trend, if Bitcoin replicates its historical performance, breaking the psychological barrier of $100,000 seems to be just a matter of time.
Specifically:
If Bitcoin's price grows by 30% in December, it could rise to $115,000.
If a 46% increase is realized, BTC's price is expected to further climb to $141,000 by the end of December.
This prediction is supported by the gradually increasing FOMO sentiment in the market and the continuous influx of new funds. Investors should pay attention to market fluctuations while also considering potential influencing factors such as macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, and fund flows. BTC's breakthrough performance will have profound implications for the entire cryptocurrency market and may trigger a broader asset bullish trend.
Additionally, renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ben Armstrong (also known as BitBoy) believes that Bitcoin's price could rise to $100,000 within the next 48 hours. BitBoy makes his predictions based on BTC's future permanent data. He pointed out:
"It's time, guys. In the next 48 hours, BTC will hit $100,000. This is the moment we've been waiting for. Cherish it. We only get this once."
Significant decrease in Bitcoin exchange reserves
According to the latest data from 10x Research, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges may be rapidly approaching exhaustion. Compared to the temporary supply increase when large amounts of funds flowed in at the end of the summer, current on-chain data reveals a starkly different trend: the stock of Bitcoin on exchanges is plummeting.
The core driving factor behind this phenomenon is the strong conviction of long-term holders, who continue to choose to store Bitcoin in private wallets rather than releasing it to the market. This "hoarding behavior" not only reduces liquidity in the market but may also further drive up prices.
With the combined effect of growing demand and supply shortages, Bitcoin's price is expected to receive additional upward catalysts. Historically, a decrease in exchange inventories often precedes price surges, prompting investors to closely monitor this trend for potential market volatility and opportunities.
On the other hand, since its inception, Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed over $31 billion in inflows, capturing a significant supply from the market. Reports indicate that BlackRock's traditional funds are also seeking investment opportunities in spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to 10x Research, as of now, only three exchanges—Bitfinex, Binance, and Coinbase—have sufficient BTC reserves. It added:
"Considering that the $30 billion inflow into Bitcoin ETFs at current prices can only secure 300,000 BTC, Bitfinex's reserves can last about a year, while Binance and Coinbase have enough supply."
Senior Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo also confirmed this, stating: "If you want to understand what is happening, look at the BTC reserves on exchanges, and you will find that a supply shock is inevitable. I don't know who is buying, but short-term traders are selling their tokens to BTC vacuums."
