Today's homework is a reflection on Pride and Prejudice, how I missed at least 10% of the gains, and completely missed the anticipated market.
Today, I took some time to review my positions and found that the one asset I should not have missed is $XRP. The excuse is that I focused more on #BTC and #ETH, but in reality, it was a bias against the asset. The main reason is that the lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple is not yet concluded, so the subjective judgment is that investors will remain cautious.
However, I overlooked the butterfly effect brought by Gary's resignation after the election effects, so from the annotations, we can see that when Trump won the election, it was actually the best time to build positions in XRP because at that time, one could speculate on Gary's resignation or dismissal. Especially with the recent balance of power, the biggest investment target should have been XRP, which I completely missed.
If I missed the election trend, then after Gary's resignation, the best targets actually are three: ETH, XRP, and $Uni. ETH, needless to say, is the expected approval of the spot ETF staking, which has the lowest difficulty and the highest possibility. For XRP, it is the second-best entry point, meaning that the lawsuit with the SEC is likely to see a turning point, and this time I missed it due to arrogance, thinking it wouldn’t last long. In fact, such a high certainty investment could easily yield a 10% gain without any issue.
Even with a small position, one could cover a month's expenses; doing a short trade is completely feasible, yet I still missed it. The situation with Uni is similar to XRP; although it received a Wells notice, Trump's election and Gary's resignation could likely reverse this situation. It is also a good opportunity for a 10% short-term gain. I also completely missed it.
If I hadn’t paid attention to these two pieces of information, I wouldn’t reflect on the miss, after all, it's not my territory. But since I had already noticed the news and had prior expectations, missing the profit due to arrogance and bias must be reflected upon. It is still necessary to constantly analyze trends and move from broader trends to details.
Be humble and calm, it is still necessary to settle down and maintain a keen judgment on details.