The Truth of Trading: A Game of Probability!

Many traders always pursue strategies with a '100% success rate', believing that as long as they find the 'perfect' method, they can be invincible. However, the essence of trading is actually a game of probability, not absolute win or lose.

1. What is the probability in trading?

1️⃣ No strategy is 100% correct: Even the top trading systems cannot guarantee that every trade will be profitable. The market is full of uncertainties, and we can only rely on high-probability events.

2️⃣ The key to profit is 'expected value': As long as the total profit exceeds the total loss in a series of trades, you are the winner. Success does not lie in being right every time, but in long-term profitability.

2. Why do many people ignore probability?

1️⃣ Overly focused on single trades: Many people concentrate on the win or loss of each trade, neglecting the overall performance of their trading.

2️⃣ Emotions influence judgment: After several consecutive losses, it is easy to doubt one's strategy and even abandon a previously correct plan.

3️⃣ Superstitious about 'absoluteness': Expecting to find a method that 'will not go wrong', while not accepting the possibility of failure.

3. How to trade with a probability mindset?

1️⃣ Establish high win-rate strategies

Although strategies with high win rates cannot guarantee profit every time, they have a greater chance of winning in the long run.

2️⃣ Focus on risk-reward ratio

Even if the win rate is not high, as long as the risk-reward ratio is excellent (for example, each profit is twice or more than the loss), long-term profitability can still be achieved.

3️⃣ Maintain a stable mindset

Understand that losses are part of trading, correctly execute the strategy, and focus on the long term instead of getting entangled in short-term gains and losses.

4️⃣ Review and optimize

Continuously optimize strategies through review, finding high-probability trading methods that match market characteristics.

4. The only thing you can control in trading is 'probability'.

Set take-profit and stop-loss levels, keeping the risk and reward of each trade within your control. Accept uncertainty, use discipline and logic to overcome emotions, and use probability to overcome the market. The outcome of trading lies in the long term, not short-term speculation, and is a rational game based on probability. Give up the pursuit of 'being right every time', and focus on becoming a winner in the long term.#比特币打破感恩节魔咒