99660 is just a little short, BTC is about to break the historic 100,000 mark. December is approaching, are you still waiting for BTC to break 100,000? Let me tell you, breaking 100,000 is not that easy. December will initiate a wave of fluctuating downward trends.
Why do I say this? 👇
1. Major favorable aspects: Before the second new high is broken, the favorable factors everyone is looking forward to are undoubtedly interest rate cuts and the election. This is also the reason why everyone insists on believing that the second new high will be broken. After the election, the market surged by more than 20,000 points, but has yet to break the 100,000 mark. 100,000 is a historical barrier, especially in the bull market of 2021, many people called for 100,000. However, what followed was the Black Swan event on May 19. Looking at this wave of bull market, will 100,000 be broken? It will definitely happen, but not now. The bull market is far from over and is likely to continue until next year (with a maximum expected at 128,000). Therefore, in the absence of significant favorable news in the subsequent trends, a pullback is certain! Additionally, some small negative rumors have intermittently appeared in the market!
2. The December line is about to open soon. (Actually, trading contracts at the opening price of the month line is the best approach, I'll explain this later.) I wonder if everyone has noticed that in the first half of the year, all the rising and falling trends basically started at the beginning of the month and ended at the end of the month. Taking the trends from July, August, and September as an example:
1. July 5: 53329 (lowest price of the monthly line); July 29: 70081 (highest price of the monthly line); Difference between the lowest and highest: 16752
2. August 5: 48880 (lowest price of the monthly line); August 25: 65175 (highest price of the monthly line); Difference between the lowest and highest: 16295
3. September 6: 52510 (lowest price of the monthly line); September 27: 66450 (highest price of the monthly line); Difference between the lowest and highest: 13940
A. The wide fluctuations in the market over these three months can be intuitively observed regarding the timing of ups and downs, and they are surprisingly consistent. Don't tell me about market behaviors; think carefully with the mindset of market makers. Now, let's look back at the trends of October and November!
1. October 10: 58900 (lowest price of the monthly line); October 29: 73660 (highest price of the monthly line); Difference between the lowest and highest: 14760
2. November 4: 66810 (lowest price of the monthly line); November 22: 99660 (highest price of the monthly line); Difference between the lowest and highest: 32850
B. In October and November, it can still be seen that the price at the beginning of the month is at the lowest point of the monthly line for that month, and the price at the end of the month is at the highest point of the monthly line. It is worth mentioning that the monthly lines for October and November both showed positive trends, mainly due to the two major favorable factors of interest rate cuts and Trump's election victory driving the price upward continuously. Therefore, in the absence of significant favorable news in the subsequent trends, we can boldly speculate that the direction of the December trend has the following two possible scenarios.
1. If the opening price of the December monthly line is between 96500 and 97500, then from December 1 to December 3, there might be a touch of 98500-99000 (due to the monthly line level, the upper shadow line cannot be absent, and conversely, the lower shadow line is the same). A decline is expected to start from December 4 to 6, but it won't be an immediate large drop. The likelihood is that it will continue to fluctuate downwards, so let's first watch the price level of 88800. As for whether it will continue to rise at the end of the month, that possibility cannot be ruled out. If there is a rise at the end of the month, it will likely be below the previous high, forming a double top pattern, then continue to decline (it cannot be ruled out that it will directly rush to 120,000, but there will definitely be a pullback before that surge). Therefore, the contract opening price can be positioned at 97500-98500 to short, which can definitely yield more than 5000 points in profit.
2. Again, it will start to fluctuate and drop after rising 1000-2000 points from the opening price (the possibility of a rapid drop after breaking 100k cannot be ruled out), and will continue to fluctuate and fall until the 22nd-25th, roughly between 80888-81888 (based on the market fluctuations from 3.14 to 4.14).
Contract opening price: 96800-97800-98800 to build short positions in batches. The maximum price level will be assessed later. The recommended position size is 1% of the total position, and take profit levels can be set to take profits in batches once profits exceed 5000 points, securing profits first.
Personally, I lean more towards the first scenario because the price range of 93000-96000 has accumulated too many short positions. According to the usual trading methods of the market makers, they will definitely continue to fluctuate up and down, wiping out most of the short and long positions.