Looking at the trend where Bitcoin breaks its historical high and enters an adjustment phase, Ethereum usually completes a strong recovery for a while. Previously, Ethereum was weak, but now the trend is still strong. Tonight, when the US stock market opens, Bitcoin should still surge a bit, but it is unlikely to break the 100,000 barrier. The upper pressure is around this week's opening price of 98,000. Tomorrow is the weekend, so some altcoins that need to catch up are expected to perform tomorrow. Focus on projects and sectors that have not yet rebounded! For example, BNB and ORDI.
Answering the two questions that are currently of greatest concern to the market: When will this round of BTC peak? When will the altcoin season explode?
First, let’s look at the price trends of BTC in the past few cycles, which are very similar to previous bull markets (2012, 2016, and 2020). So far, there are no signs that the outcome of the final phase will differ from previous cycles; history is always remarkably similar!
Based on this data, we can make a judgment: we are currently in the fourth phase of this bull market - the prosperity phase. This occurs about 183 days after the Bitcoin halving, and it is also the early period of the craziest prosperity phase. From the data of the past two cycles, we can speculate:
The top of this bull market is likely to occur in September/October 2025. Only by calculating from the previous cycle's bottom to the top can we determine the bull's peak, which is March 2025. The actual timing of the bull peak will become clearer as it approaches, so we need to track whether the surge in the first quarter of next year will stagnate or continue to gain momentum. However, let's boldly speculate. Assuming BTC will reach its cycle peak around September or October next year.
When will the explosive phase of this altcoin season occur?
Currently, although some strong altcoins are beginning to perform, we have not yet reached a level of crazy altcoin explosions like in 2021.
This is because we have just passed the 'BTC leading phase' of this cycle, where the previous price surge of BTC absorbed most of the liquidity.
Before the momentum of BTC changes, altcoins will not truly rebound, and the real drama is just beginning!
There are signs that BTC's dominance is continuing to rise and is showing signs of turning.
When BTC's dominance is broken, the real altcoin season will ignite.
Therefore, we have seen the general rise in the altcoin market in recent days, even though Bitcoin is adjusting at high levels. This round, driven by the Trump economy, has seen BTC perform excellently, which is actually a very healthy development.
We need a strong BTC to lay the foundation for a sustainable altcoin rebound. The higher Bitcoin rises, the stronger the capital shift to altcoins will be.
In the previous round during a similar phase in the market, BTC consistently outperformed until the end of 2020, and it was only after the halving in 2021 that altcoins finally became the focus.
If the same pattern repeats, this round may turn into a real altcoin season in early 2025.
From the K-line chart of the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding the top 10 as a percentage of Bitcoin’s market value, we can see that altcoins have just started to bottom out and reverse. Currently, the altcoin speculation index is at 40%, while the last two bull peaks reached over 90%.
Therefore, altcoins still have a lot of upside potential that has not yet manifested!
The reason why a full altcoin market is not yet underway is because:
Overall, users still exhibit representative biases from behavioral economics, and their inner need requires time to gradually loosen up. Additionally, from a funding perspective, the main capital in the second phase comes from the entry of sidelined funds, so overall, it is difficult for the market to initiate a full-scale altcoin market. Furthermore, there are many trapped positions in most altcoins, which means that when they reach a critical position, they will experience a certain period of consolidation after rising to a certain level.
Therefore, the situation in the second phase is: a small number of leading coins surge (over 10 times), a small proportion of altcoins have decent gains (over 2 times), and the majority of altcoins experience a general rise, with a certain proportion showing no performance.
Additionally, this week's Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that more officials support a gradual rate cut. This means that if inflation shows signs of resurgence, they will pause one or two rate cuts.
It can be seen that the Federal Reserve has actually become somewhat more hawkish. However, in the current high-interest rate environment, the probability of inflation rising is not high. Therefore, there is not much concern about this situation.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at the next meeting on December 19 is still quite high, at 61.3%. However, a few weeks ago, this figure was over 80%. Thus, the interest rate market still has some concerns; however, I personally have full confidence in a rate cut in December. At that time, the crypto market could also kick off a new round of upward momentum, and we shall wait and see.
