Cryptocurrency TRON (TRX) has been on a strong run in 2024, up 120% since the start of the year. However, fresh data from CryptoQuant suggests that the upward trend may be slowing.
Sharpe Ratio: Signal of a Top
An analysis of the last 180 days shows that the TRX Sharpe ratio has reached high risk levels, which may indicate a local maximum. Historically, this ratio has accurately predicted peaks, although this does not rule out the possibility of a short-term increase.
TRX hit a new all-time high of $0.224 this year (November 23), but has since fallen 10% to trade at $0.20. This decline does not necessarily indicate strong selling pressure, but reflects a weakening of buying momentum.
Dynamics of supply and demand
Blockchain data shows:
November 16: Inflow of funds from large holders was 2.13B TRX, while outflow was slightly higher at 2.16B TRX.
November 27: Inflows decreased to 205.77M TRX and outflows decreased to 159.87M TRX, indicating a moderate positive demand balance.
However, the decline in overall activity by large investors, known as "whales", suggests that their interest is slowing.
Situation in the derivatives market
In the derivatives segment, TRX also shows weakness:
Open interest peaked at $160.25M on November 24, well below the August highs.
This decline confirms the decrease in demand for#TRX from derivatives traders, weakening the bullish momentum.
Conclusions and forecasts
The decline in activity by large investors, the decrease in open interest and the high Sharpe ratios point to a possible short-term downturn. However:
#TRX still faces relatively little selling pressure.
Continued positive demand from whales could support prices in the near future.
At the moment, TRX is in the zone of uncertainty. Investors should be prepared for both a correction and a possible resumption of growth.
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